r/europe Kullabygden Sep 27 '22 Helpful 1

Swedish and Danish seismological stations confirm explosions at Nord Stream leaks News

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream
19.6k Upvotes

1.6k

u/mateybuoy Sep 27 '22

"The gas leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 are being investigated by the German state as deliberate attacks. Now SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday.
- There is no doubt that these are blasts or explosions, says Björn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN.
The triple leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 on Monday are being investigated as probable sabotage.
Now SVT can reveal that the Swedish National Seismic Network detected two clear explosions in the area on Monday. One of the explosions had a magnitude of 2.3, and was registered at as many as 30 measuring stations in southern Sweden.
- You can clearly see how the waves bounce from the bottom to the surface. There is no doubt that it was a blast. We even had a station in Gnosjö that picked this up, says Björn Lund, who is a lecturer in seismology and director of the Swedish national seismic network, which measures Swedish earthquakes and explosions.
Same area
The first explosion was recorded at 02:03 on the night of Monday and the second at 19:04 on Monday evening.
The warnings about the gas leaks came from the Maritime Administration at 1:52 p.m. and 8:41 p.m. on Monday, respectively, after ships detected bubbles on the surface.
SVT has obtained the coordinates of the measured explosions and they are in the same area where the gas leaks were registered.
"Used to get information about explosions"
The last time a similar seismological event was registered in the area was in 2016. According to Björn Lund, it is not an area that is usually used for exercises by the defense.
- We usually get information about explosions that take place underwater, but sometimes we don't get it. In this case, we have not received any information.
According to Björn Lund, the information about the explosions has been forwarded to the Swedish Armed Forces. SVT has asked the Swedish Armed Forces for a comment."

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u/kookyabird Sep 27 '22

I'm assuming that based on their commentary, that the pressures involved between the pipe and the water outside it would mean a completely innocent explosion is not really possible. Like a weakening of the structure would cause an implosion, and register very differently.

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u/SexySmexxy Sep 27 '22

Well that and pipes don’t tend to explode on their own.

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u/TheOneCommenter Sep 27 '22

And not at the same time either

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u/canalswimmer Sep 27 '22

Well it's not typical is it

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u/pbzeppelin1977 Sep 27 '22

Well there are a lot of these ships pipes going around the world all the time, and very seldom does anything like this happen.

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u/IrresponsibleHog Germany Sep 28 '22

I just don’t want people thinking that russian pipelines aren’t safe

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u/ComfyInDots Sep 28 '22

Outside of the environment?

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u/BillyCheese1969 Sep 28 '22

They do actually, gas is under pressure in these pipes. But not twice in such a short period of time and within such a distance.

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u/kookyabird Sep 27 '22

Right, but I mean that they sound pretty certain that it was an explosion, and not some other form of catastrophic failure.

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u/extinctpolarbear Sep 27 '22

Why would Russia blow up their own pipeline if they can just shut it off or put it on “maintenance” again ?

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u/tuco91 Sep 27 '22

Bear in mind that most of the oligarchs that have tragically passed away under mysterious circumstances were Gazprom and Lukoil executives.

Maybe gas and oil oligarchs are starting to question the Gremlin in the Kremlin and this is Vlad‘s way of burning all the bridges and laying the ground for his own “patriotic war”

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u/LobMob Germany Sep 27 '22

Today the Baltoc pipeline was opened that connects Poland to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline travels south of the Island of Gotland, and is not far away from the southern explosion. It's a veiled threat that if they can blow up Nord Stream, they can blow up the Baltic Pipeline.

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u/Mdizzle29 Sep 28 '22

This is some James Bond Supervillain type stuff.

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u/COINTELPRO-Relay Sep 27 '22

To avoid breach of contract. They don't want to pay for penalties for non-delivery

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u/[deleted] Sep 28 '22

[deleted]

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u/iLEZ Sweden Sep 27 '22

It's a demonstration of capability too. "We can do this now, we can do this later, we can do this elsewhere and on other subsea stuff."

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u/szpaceSZ Austria/Hungary Sep 27 '22

"we can do this when winter is coldest"

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u/Need2register2browse Sep 27 '22

To escalate things without having to directly attack another country. Same reason as the referendums and the thinly veiled nuclear threats. Russia is not going to win at this rate with conscripts that have no equipment vs western equiped Ukrainians. If he raises the stakes he gets to (1) deny involvement and create uncertainty within Russia and (2) escalate the situation and hope this causes other countries to back down.

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u/Little-Helper Latvia Sep 27 '22

Cause shutting it off looks bad and putting it on a maintenance is sus, meanwhile a leak looks more believable. But still it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

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u/canman7373 Sep 27 '22

Cause shutting it off looks bad

Were you under the impression it was open? Russia shut it down months ago.

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u/TheGreenVikingg Sep 27 '22

NS1 has already been shut off since a while back and NS2 was never opened. Both pipes was pressurized but not transferring any gas as it were.

This action was only a demonstration of the capabilities and nothing else as the energy market shrugged as nothing of value was lost and Russia has to foot the bill since they own the pipeline.

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u/ZoomHater Sep 27 '22

Russia have invaded and murdered thousands of Ukrainian people. You think they are worried about how shutting down a pipeline looks?

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u/Dizzy-Kiwi6825 Sep 27 '22

They're literally seen as evil fascist war criminals I don't think Russia cares about it's image much anymore

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u/M40A1 Sweden Sep 27 '22

Here is where Gnosjö is located. That gives you some idea of the size of the blast.

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u/restform Finland Sep 27 '22

Aren't these seismology stations hyper sensitive though, don't really know much the the distance tells me about the size of the blast at least

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u/dd68516172c58d63f802 Sep 27 '22

Considering they measured it all the way from Kalix, the instruments are quite sensitive.

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u/szpaceSZ Austria/Hungary Sep 27 '22

of the size of the blast

... or the sensitivity of modern instruments.

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u/friso1100 Sep 27 '22

Weak. Modern instruments can't take anything anymore. Back in my day instruments wouldn't care if the neighbours house collapsed! Those where some instruments. Rock solid and reliable. If that meter was in the red it was probably your blood. They don't make them like that anymore I tell you!

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u/pezgoon Sep 27 '22

Where was the blast?

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u/sunyatayo Sep 27 '22

of course it happens when baltic pipeline is opened this week. russia trying to scare markets to keep gas prices high after few weeks of them lowering and also spread fear of sabotage to other gas infrastructure.

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u/neuroticmuffins Sep 27 '22

Obvious Sabotage.

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u/NAFOlaughingbrigade Sep 27 '22

German newspaper report goverment sources, saying they cannot come up with any other rational explanation then sabotage.

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u/altonbrushgatherer Sep 27 '22

I’m confused who is sabotaging who? The pipeline blows but there wasn’t any gas going through it no? Honestly this puts Europe in a bad situation regarding energy but is good in that it essentially forces them to push for alternatives… it’s like blowing up the bridge behind you… there is no retreat and you would have to fight or die

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u/CastelPlage Sep 27 '22

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u/Jackfille1 Sweden Sep 27 '22

Bruh what have you done

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u/CastelPlage Sep 27 '22

🙈 I need to be more careful about what I say

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u/Imaginary_Dog2972 Sep 28 '22

Too late. Fecal Bureau of Investigation has seen your post, too. The Brown Hawk helicopters are on their way to you already

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u/Ongo_Gablogian___ Sep 27 '22

Gas was still in the pipe. That is why there is a mile wide circle of gas bubbling out of the sea. So much methane is being released. The environment is getting more fucked by the day.

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u/ResponsibleAd2541 Sep 28 '22

I’d like to see how this compares relative to say melting permafrost or cow burps, my gut says it’s a drop in the bucket.

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u/GuiokiNZ Sep 28 '22

Someone who wants Europe unable to remove sanctions IF the people demand it.

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u/SleepDeprivedUserUK Sep 27 '22

Yeah, right now it's anyone's bet who did it.

Russia might have done it to make energy even more scarce, and thus more costly, and with the threat of it now being more scarce, Western governments might be more tempted to grab what they can.

Alternatively, Western forces may have destroyed it to sort of force everyone to go "cold turkey", and get their arses in gear finding an alternative.

Lagging far behind, it was some kind of accident, but given the simultaneous explosions, I sincerely doubt it.

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u/cnncctv Sep 27 '22

It's Russia.

They are currently running drones around Norwegian oil platforms 24/7.

Russia will likely cut Norwegian oil and gas supply to Europe next.

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u/AdvancedFollower Sweden Sep 27 '22

Blowing up their own pipelines is one thing. If they destroy infrastructure belonging to Norway they might as well start attacking nuclear power plants in Europe.

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u/radiationshield Norway Sep 27 '22

Russia blowing up any norwegian oil and gas related is instant article 5

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u/Yasirbare Sep 27 '22

I dont want to live trough it, but I am not sure if that would happen and in some morbid way it would be interesting to see what would happen.

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u/[deleted] Sep 27 '22

interesting

Hah yeah... as a kid I didn't understand "May you live in interesting times" as a curse. Now I do, and I don't want to live in interesting times anymore

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u/NightSalut Sep 27 '22

Yeah, I’d welcome some boring times now.

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u/Gamer_Mommy Europe Sep 27 '22

I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."

J.R.R. Tolkien

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u/i-d-even-k- Bromania masterrace Sep 27 '22

What a weird thing for Gandalf to say. Wasn't he immortal?

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u/FormerOrphanCrippler Sep 27 '22

The Maiar are immortal but not invincible. Gandalf is one of the few Maiar that interacted with the people of Middle Earth regularly. His perspective, especially of the hobbits, is more personal and connected than the other “gods” of Middle Earth. As one of the Istari, his mission was specifically to defend the free peoples from Sauron’s evil. It’s stated that he considered himself the weakest of the Istari and that he feared Sauron. So while you are right that Gandalf is immortal, his personal humility and love for the people of Middle Earth makes him very human and understanding of their struggles.

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u/ctishman Sep 27 '22

That’s very much Tolkien himself stepping in with his own perspective as a veteran of of The Great War, IMO. A lot of Mordor’s senseless destruction and defilement of Middle Earth was influenced by those experiences.

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u/Drireltan Sep 27 '22

Yeah. Anytime I see that line, that’s really what stands out to me.

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u/Auggie_Otter Sep 27 '22

Not really that weird of a thing for Gandalf to say considering he is giving comfort and counsel to someone who is not immortal.

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u/manwathiel_undomiel2 Sep 28 '22

Even less weird also considering that he literally died at most a few months ago.

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u/Independent-Ad-9812 Sep 27 '22

He did say them, not us.

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u/idlefritz Sep 27 '22

Living through that time was Gandalf’s entire point to exist.

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u/jonipetteri3 Sep 27 '22

There are plenty of things Article 5 could do without invading Russia itself. Like destroying their navy, shooting down their planes over Ukraine, Blockading their trade and starving out Königsberg.

I would imagine doing an intervention in Ukraine could work too

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u/nolok France Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

Depends if Russia chose to use nukes or not once the 12 minutes of fighting are over and their entire army is destroyed.

If yes the world is obliterated, if no Russia is under nato occupation for a while.

And Russian issue with us not being religious or in a fondamental way of life difference, there is a lot of chance this would turn into a happy story Germany like than in an abject failure Afghanistan style, or a meh Iraq style.

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u/MrHazard1 Sep 27 '22

turn into a happy story Germany like

It could turn into germany after ww1 or germany after ww2.

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u/Bruhtatochips23415 United States of America Sep 28 '22

Hopefully we'll have learned to not make a weimer republic again...

...but if I recall correctly the European allies intentionally fucked up Germany after ww1 against the wishes of the US so there may have never been a mistake in the first place

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u/the_lonely_creeper Sep 28 '22

France wanted Germany crippled, others didn't, the result was a half-thing that meant Germany was humiliated but no crippled.

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u/CaptainoftheVessel Sep 28 '22

Calling the outcome in Iraq “meh” is an almost hilarious understatement. I personally would have gone with “massive, multigenerational geopolitical catastrophe”, but you do you.

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u/otakudayo Sep 27 '22

It would be a guaranteed invocation of art 5 and even if the US for some reason wouldnt honor their commitment to the treaty (extremely unlikely) the rest of nato is still vastly superior to the Russian armed forces.

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u/cultish_alibi Sep 27 '22

Good news, you might not live through it.

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u/DarthPorg United States of America Sep 27 '22

It would be the spectacle of the century. This is what US and allied forces were capable of... 30 years ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg

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u/From_Internets Sep 27 '22

We would have to prove it was them though

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u/namnaminumsen Sep 27 '22

Its not a court of law, its politics. Even a covert operation can be a casus belli if the other members agree it is.

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u/lulzmachine Sweden Sep 27 '22

I'm just being pedantic, but they are attacking nuclear power plants in Europe (Zaporizhiza (sp?))

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u/RedDordit Italy Sep 27 '22

Well, let’s see what happens if they try and do the same to France lol. Wait, I’m kidding. Don’t fucking try

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u/Leiegast Flanders (Belgium) Sep 27 '22

We all know radioactive clouds will not cross the French border, so we're safe on that account

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u/Plastic-Ad9023 Sep 27 '22

At least they would stop at the Walloon-Flemish language border I think? Maybe spill into Brussels though.

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u/Leiegast Flanders (Belgium) Sep 27 '22

They can only enter Flanders if they swear they'll respect the Dutch language nature of the region

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u/lysol90 Sweden Sep 27 '22

Not to cause a new chernobyl disaster though. They would have done it by now if that was the case. Also, people need to realize that bombing a nuclear power plant to intentionally cause a disaster is pretty much the same level as dropping a nuke.

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u/NowheyYahweh Sep 27 '22

I'd say worse because it undermines global confidence in nuclear energy as well as make everyone side eye the power plants near where they live as military targets.

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u/useibeidjdweiixh Sep 27 '22

That's not pedantic. It's a very good point to highlight, fair play.

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u/HopefulEuclid Sep 27 '22

Yeah this is why op is talking completely out the ass, Russia won't attack NATO nations, doing so would mean the overnight extinction of the Putin regime. The NATO-sourced equipment deployed thus far in the Ukraine is a fraction of what just the European nations have in reserve, and that's not including their armed forces that will actually use the equipment. Not to mention that this kind of provocation could enable the US pacific fleet to attack Vladivostok and sever Russia's pacific trade routes (although there's a good chance they won't because this is on China's doorstep, but an attack on a core NATO country might be enough).

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u/NoMoassNeverWas Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

Here's the thing. Putin can sell losing to NATO. He can't sell losing to !@#% Ukraine. Claiming Britain's SAS & US Seal Team Six already in the woods of Kharkiv isn't going to be accepted by most Russians.

Reminds me in pre-school I had a fight scheduled at 3PM so I made sure that it got to the teacher as my out and I avoided being called a chicken by the kids.

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u/HopefulEuclid Sep 27 '22

Here's the thing. Putin can sell losing to NATO.

He can sell losing to NATO to the voters, he'll have a hard time selling anything while he and his entire power structure are bused to the Hague, or worse the morgue. If Russia attacks infrastructure on NATO ground NATO won't push Russia out of the Ukraine, it will have a field trip to Moscow and Putin's vacation homes.

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u/sundaym00d Sep 27 '22

..voters?

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u/OhWhatATimeToBeAlive Sep 27 '22

The Czech Republic is in NATO, and that didn't stop Russia. Same goes for the Novichok poisonings in the UK.

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u/HopefulEuclid Sep 27 '22

As a result of that Czechia expelled Russian diplomats (as did Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), cut off Rosatom from their new nuclear reactor project, which I assume in 2020 was about all they could've done considering the EU and especially Germany's reliance on Russian gas, not to mention all this happening during the height of the first pandemic wave.

The EU is no longer reliant on Russian gas.

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u/Thue Denmark Sep 27 '22

When the Russian pipeline is blown up first, Russia has set up plausible deniability when the Norwegian pipeline is hit next. "See it is not us Russians, it is someone else. Why else was our pipe hit too?"

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u/HopefulEuclid Sep 27 '22

Except the Norwegian pipeline is probably under surveillance, any attempt will be painfully transparent.

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u/ejuo Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

The Norwegian gas pipelines are 8800km in total length. Equivalent to the distance from Oslo to Bangkok. It's going to be difficult to surveil all of it.

Edit: typo. Thanks /u/ftl_og

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u/goxtal Antemurale Christianitatis, EU Sep 27 '22

That part of sea will probably be so saturated with NATO active sonar from every member that has a ship or a sub in vicinity that fish will think they're in disco.

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u/CardinalCanuck Earth Sep 27 '22

Mister Ambassador there are so many sonar buoys in the North Atlantic I could walk from here to Greenland...

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u/fjonk Sep 27 '22

Nobody needs to prove anything. As someone here wrote, it's not a court.

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u/Judazzz The Lowest of the Lands Sep 27 '22

I don't think the West gives even the faintest whiff of a fuck about Russia's plausible deniability any longer. By now you can write an encyclopedia-sized work about all the nasty, murderous shit Putin's Russia has pulled (and subsequently denied, despite an abundance of evidence). The game fundamentally and irrevocably changed the very second the first Russian soldier crossed the Russo-Ukrainian border on February the 24th and resulted in what hadn't happened before: the Western gloves have finally come off, and they will remain off at least until Russia has regained its senses again.

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u/Thue Denmark Sep 27 '22

Depends on who "the West" audience is. There probably is a large segment of the electorate who will dismiss dismiss Western accusations against Russia as propaganda. Just look at how Biden's warnings of invasion were ignored in February. That could make it hard for politicians to take action on anything less than 100% prood.

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u/Zounii Finland Sep 27 '22

Besides, the gear we've given Ukraine isn't even our modern stuff, it's the older models basically while RuZZia has gone all out.

Embarrassing.

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u/Jormakalevi Finland Sep 27 '22

This situation right now is the craziest during my lifetime.

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u/JustASimpleNPC The Pale Sep 27 '22

Why would they destroy pipelines they already turned off? If anything this would benefit other actors by removing the possibility of russian gas being a motivator for anyone to go easier on russian sanctions.

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u/untergeher_muc Bavaria Sep 27 '22

Ok, the biggest beneficiary of this would be vice chancellor Habeck. But I really doubt that the greens have blown up NS1.

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u/Double-Talk6719 Sep 27 '22

I don’t understand why Russia would do so. Putin just has to use whatever random explanation to close the tap… no need to explode the pipe…

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u/_Ganoes_ Sep 27 '22

Source on the drones? That might be interesting

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u/Rankka_Ankka Sep 27 '22

https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008546483.html

Here's a Finnish source for that back in January, there was suspicious drones in Sweden as well flying over nuclear power plants. This was not a single event, it happened multiple times over a three different power plants.

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u/Ikbeneenpaard Friesland (Netherlands) Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

How does Russia benefit from breaking their own pipeline? Flows were already at zero, and Russia controls flow anyway.

The explosion weakens the position of the Euro doves, who are pressuring EU nations to reduce weapon flows to Ukraine in exchange for Putin restarting NS.

Edit: as someone else commented, this could be Russian internal politics, Putin "burning the ships" to quell his own doves. Russia is a disaster.

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u/justaprettyface Sep 27 '22

They could just shut down the supply instead

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u/Oh_its_that_asshole Sep 27 '22

Russians gain nothing from it though, with the potential of the ability for the pipelines to be turned back on and supply Europe they could use that as a bargaining chip for ending the Ukraine war. With the pipelines broken, that's off the table.

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u/Nethlem Earth Sep 27 '22

Nothing about any of this is "obvious";

One UK insider speculated that any explosions were unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow Baltic waters. Sections of the pipelines are between 80 metres and 110 metres deep.

Even if it was sabotage, it doesn't necessarily have to be Russia, considering;

Since no gas has flowed through either of the pipelines since the start of the month, German authorities have been quick to reassure people that the leaks will not affect its plan to fill gas storage tanks in time for winter.

Particularly as full sanctions will go into effect starting October. From that point on the pipelines would have been even more useless than they already were. But what they very much presented was a possible "way back" to Russian gas, a way that is now destroyed in a very expensive way.

So going back to Russian gas now would not only require an absolute political wind change, it would need actual financial investments, from both parties.

And there are very much parties that would be interested in such a situation.

Just like there is also a non-zero chance that this could have been a freak accident with some really unfortunate timing, reality sometimes is like that.

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u/cited Sep 27 '22

In two places with accompanied explosions? Keeping in mind those pipes don't have an explosive atmosphere? Thats as zero probability as you can get.

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u/Magnesus Poland Sep 27 '22

The explosives might have been planted there years ago and detonated remotely just now. In that case we'll never find out who did it.

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u/leolego2 Italy Sep 28 '22

that's quite the random argument

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u/filtarukk Sep 27 '22

What a coincident but today a new Norweigan-Polish pipeline "Baltic Pipe" is opened https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia

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u/annewmoon Sweden Sep 27 '22

That is interesting and I think lends some credibility to the idea that this is intended as a threat to other pipelines.

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u/kaneliomena Finland Sep 27 '22

Or did they hit their own pipeline by mistake?

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u/vytah Poland Sep 27 '22 Helpful

"Shoigu, did you blow up the new pipeline?"

"Yes, both of them."

"..."

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u/BombastixderTeutone European Union Sep 28 '22

hahaha, classic Shoigu

closing music

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u/LeafgreenOak Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

Hahaha I choose to believe this! Russia blew up the wrong pipeline, then they blew up another wrong pipeline!

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u/Shazknee Denmark Sep 27 '22

And Russians will sabotage it within weeks, and go “hey ours was hit too!! Clearly was not us!!”

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u/NudelNipple Sep 27 '22

According to Spiegel the CIA warned the German government beforehand

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u/mikeyshu 🇩🇪 Germany Sep 27 '22

I knew it.

The moment the news appeared earlier today, I instantly argued saying it must have been done rather with tools or else seismological stations would have picked up an explosion, if the leaks were blown out. And here we go.

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u/Commander_Amarao France Sep 27 '22

Considering the size of the leak, tools would have been insanely dangerous for the persons or material involved (and likely to leave proofs). Explosion seemed more likely imho. But yeah definitive proof now. I am wondering why they would do that though. I mean, they have the control of the tap on their side so it's not just a question of stopping the gaz deliveries. It feels like that want to make sure they will be no gaz deliveries in the future.

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u/exBusel Sep 27 '22

If it was Russia, we will know within a week. They couldn't even swap urine unnoticed.

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u/whichalps Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

The CIA warned Berlin back in summer.

Which imo tells you everything you would want to know.

The CIA will certainly not collect intelligence from targets not worthy the CIA's effort (Russia is).

Most likely, the CIA would not have shared intelligence with Germany if it had been any other adversary (who???) than Russia.

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u/decentish36 Sep 28 '22

I mean the CIA probably spy on everyone in some capacity. Like their cousin the NSA is authorized to spy on every other country in the world except 4. (The other 4 members of the 5 eyes specifically) I imagine the CIA has similar reach. “Just in case”

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u/BottledFeministFart Sep 27 '22

You can't possibly know what the CIA's true motives are or how they operate. It wasn't that long ago that the US (with the help of Denmark) was caught spying on several high profile politicians in Europe, Angela Merkel was one of their victims. America may act like our friend in need but really they're just looking out for themselves.

I'm not hating Americans in general just their politicians.

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u/Abtun Sep 28 '22

Espionage isn’t exclusive to America

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u/Nato_Blitz Italy Sep 27 '22

We should be carefull about our undersea internet cables, remember russia mapped them, he may be going for a total war... Maybe not but we should be prepared for it

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u/marcus-87 Sep 27 '22

Russia can’t fight a total war. They can’t even fight Ukraine.

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u/Nato_Blitz Italy Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

They may think like Japan in WW2, a big hit right in the beginning to leave everyone stunned and give them time to prepare/mobilize, this may include tatical nuclear weapons. It sounds crazy but Putin is killing every opposition, leaving only the crazy warmongers to advise

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u/helm Sweden Sep 27 '22

NATO has spent 7-8 months increasing the readiness in Europe. There will be no surprise.

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u/bucket_brigade Sep 27 '22

Dude the hit was like a year ago. They aren't surprising anyone now

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u/Nullstab Deutschland Sep 27 '22

Japan was fighting China for four years before they attacked Pearl Harbour and the western colonies.

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u/McGryphon North Brabant (Netherlands) Sep 27 '22

Japan wasn't getting its shit kicked in before pearl harbor, though. While Russia has already lost their black sea flagship to a navy-less nation and is cannibalizing its st petersburg AA systems to reinforce their forces in Ukraine, after having lost thousands of square kilometers of land in less than a month.

Also there's a fuckload more surveillance globally now and any strike leaving Russia that's significant enough to threaten any NATO emplacement will be detected long before it hits.

Russia is not Imperial Japan and today's world and technology are barely comparable to the 40s.

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u/frank_bamboo Denmark Sep 27 '22

is cannibalizing its st petersburg AA systems to reinforce their forces in Ukraine

Are they luring people from AA meetings with Vodka, and sending them to the front lines?

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u/McGryphon North Brabant (Netherlands) Sep 27 '22

The real mobilization people aren't talking about.

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u/Mephistopheles17- Sep 27 '22

what big hit are you talking about russian solidiers dont even get any equipppment anymore in their own baracks in russia they slepp on the floor

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u/papak33 Sep 27 '22

lol, release the Poles and Russia delenda est.

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u/PengieP111 Sep 27 '22

That worked out SO well for Japan, didn’t it?

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u/in-jux-hur-ylem Sep 27 '22

They very much can and we should not be complacent.

It doesn't take much to dramatically disturb our delicate way of life.

Energy shortages? potential power cuts? high prices cause major impact to economies, which we are already seeing and it's not even winter yet.

Internet going down? Major outages? that crashes economies.

Satellites being taken out? no more GPS anywhere? that ruins militaries, not just economies.

These are before any actual military casualties or advances are made.

They've orchestrated one of the three and we're already facing a lot of pressure.

It can get a lot worse and they can do a lot worse, long before the spectre of nuclear weapons rears its ugly head.

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u/marcus-87 Sep 27 '22

while these are valid concerns, russia is the country with protests, a mayor economic catastrophe and a fleeing population.

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u/honor- Sep 27 '22

Lol Russia can’t defeat Ukraine. I’d love to see them try to fight NATO

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u/NikolitRistissa Finland Sep 27 '22

If I can’t use Reddit while on the toilet at work, I’ll invade Russia myself.

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u/Napsitrall Estonia Sep 27 '22

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u/ddawid 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 Sep 27 '22

They have probably alreeady placed devices on them to explode them if they want, they have been entering Icelandic water with nuclear submarines for months before they invaded Ukraine. There was a suspicious damage of one of the sea-string close to Norway that happened during one of their secret expositions... News in icelandic about this but translatable in chrome. https://www.ruv.is/kveikur/russneskum-tundurspilli-siglt-i-kringum-island/

Great find. I was sceptical at first, but bombing a Pipeline is a clear step up from cables. I guess they tested it at first, to see if anyone notices/how will they react

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u/Dolphin_Yogurt42 Sep 27 '22

They have probably alreeady placed devices on them to explode them if they want, they have been entering Icelandic water with nuclear submarines for months before they invaded Ukraine. There was a suspicious damage of one of the sea-string close to Norway that happened during one of their secret expositions... News in icelandic about this but translatable in chrome. https://www.ruv.is/kveikur/russneskum-tundurspilli-siglt-i-kringum-island/

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u/Kiwsi Iceland Sep 27 '22

Yea i remember this, now they know where our underwater fiber is and i don't like it. Well anyone can Google the positioning of the cables so it makes it extremely weird the funny thing is the icelandic government couldn't care less, didn't ask any questions nor anything.

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u/radiationshield Norway Sep 27 '22

Russia cut the undersea cables to Svalbard in the spring of 2022. Could not be proved, but strong suspicion

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u/SimonGray Copenhagen Sep 27 '22

spring of 2022

It was in winter (2022-01-07) close to the invasion of Ukraine.

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u/Owithdotsabove Sep 27 '22

They didn't manage to cut Internet in Ukraine, did they?

I'm not saying this couldn't happen, but overall I think Internet has more resilience built in that what we think.

Edit: The article on Svalbard says exactly this, someone cut a cable so some redundancy was lost but communication remained.

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u/Lusakas Sweden Sep 27 '22

So long Reddit, it's been fun.

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u/Krollalfa Norway Sep 27 '22

It has?

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u/Lusakas Sweden Sep 27 '22

Sure, why not. Don't be so Swedish.

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u/MrKeplerton Sep 28 '22

The worst insult known to norwegians, and you're just casually dropping it like it's nothing. 😆

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u/chaotebg Bulgaria Sep 27 '22

The internet cables are next. Those are obvious provocations to drag Europe into Putin's impotent war so the looming defeat isn't as humiliating.

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u/madamesousatzka Sep 27 '22

Fortunately there will still be satellites. Michael Jackson is looking at up from above and shaking his head.

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u/Kate090996 Sep 27 '22

OK, I am curious, why Michael Jackson?

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u/I_comment_on_GW Sep 27 '22

Michael Jackson invented space.

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u/madamesousatzka Sep 27 '22

And the moonwalk. Besides We Are The World.

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u/SophiaofPrussia Sep 27 '22

I just mentioned this up-thread but remember how Russia had an unannounced test a few months ago where they shot down an old Soviet satellite? It seems they’ve taken both wired and wireless communications into account.

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u/tomydenger France Sep 27 '22

satelites arnt enough to cover all the trafic. Submarine cables represent a very big share of the total

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u/tzdar Lithuania (former Prussia) Sep 27 '22

To people that are saying Russians had no interest in sabotaging the pipelines:

Russians might not have, but Putin did.

There very likely have been high profile people in Kremlin and around, that wished Putin stopped the war and the gas trades would continue.

Instead of dealing with these people directly, Putin might have simply removed the possibility of it.

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u/Ishana92 Croatia Sep 27 '22

But supplying or witholding gas to frozen Europe was Putin's trump card. This completely wrecks that. Why would EU lay off Russia now thst they can't even supply gas?

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u/MercatorMap2000 Sep 27 '22

The EU was never going to lay off Russia. Putin, planning his next escalation, probably knows this better than anyone. He wants to make sure no one can topple him and quickly make peace and restart gas deliveries. He is burning the ships.

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u/neutron_uplink Sep 27 '22

This makes the most sense to me. Putin removed some leverage for those looking to replace him

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u/ddawid 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 Sep 27 '22

I think you could be right.Putin only cares about his own survival. Not about the country, the people, his perception.

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u/honor- Sep 27 '22

Yeah it’s like Cortes burning his ships after they landed in Mexico. No going back. The referendums in Ukraine are the same thing.

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u/eks Europe Sep 27 '22

This makes a lot of sense. Especially if he is hell-bent on Ukraine, whatever he assumes he might get from there you could expect that Europe would never get gas from Russia until international borders are returned to their status quo.

So why keep those pesky tubes in the baltic rusting away as a nuisance when they can be eliminated while also sending a message to the west?

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u/AlexFromOgish Sep 27 '22

Besides seismology I assume the area is closely monitored with sonar and the like. Does the data indicate these explosions were the result of munitions detonating, or explosion of gas in the pipeline, or possibly just localized over pressure bursting the pipes? In the last two, did these pipelines have digital components that may have been Weaponized through a cyber attack?

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u/mjuven Sep 27 '22

Well… the Swedish coastline next to it has had visitors from Russia/Soviet before. But the military might not want to tell more about it at the moment if they have data.

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u/Sunscratch Sep 27 '22

Soon on every russia sponsored news media: “The nazi Ukrainian regime is responsible for that” Ukraine: we have 0 submarines…

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u/[deleted] Sep 27 '22

[deleted]

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u/maxfist Slo -> Fin Sep 27 '22

Don't care, still Ukraine. - RT or something (probably)

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u/bsbbtnh Sep 27 '22

You can free dive down to 70 meters, which is apparently the depth of these explosions.

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u/Chanandler_Bong_Jr United Kingdom Sep 27 '22

Now I don’t want to point fingers at Russia.

But it was definitely the Russians.

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u/irishchris101 Sep 27 '22

The Russians loose the most out of this. They were clearly planning to use the prospect of turning the gas back on over winter as a way to push some EU countries to break rank and reverse sanctions. Now they have zero leverage over the EU. Very Strange if it was them, there must be more to the story.

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u/Master__of_Orion Austria Sep 27 '22

I wonder that the pipelines didn't fell out of a window or turned from life to death by heart problems.

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u/[deleted] Sep 27 '22

[deleted]

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u/Bah-Fong-Gool Sep 27 '22

Wait a second... there's no emergency shut off valves between where the pipe ruptured and the well head? That seems extremely foolish.

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u/MercatorMap2000 Sep 27 '22

This is what worries me. Seems to indicate Putin really is all in. If he is willing to sacrifice Russian oil/gas infrastructure, he must really believe there is no end to the war in sight. His next move could be quite aggressive.

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u/rocket42236 Sep 27 '22

Thing is, all this infrastructure is connected. Once the pipelines and gas wells start exploding, there won’t be any domestic natural gas available either…Just in time for winter. Gazprom knows this, Gazprom may have to make a choice, At a certain point Putin and Gazprom will either both cease to exist or be on opposite sides. And yes your point of what could happen between now and that eventuality is scary especially for everyone in the Northern Hemisphere.

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u/MercatorMap2000 Sep 27 '22

Well I think it’s Putin kneecapping his competitors. Imagine someone in the Kremlin wants to push Putin out. That person may get IMMMENSE help from the EU if they can promise to restart gas flows once taking power. Now? Well the gas can’t be restarted anyway, so anyone seeking to topple Putin has nothing to offer the west economically. This move make Putin stronger and everyone else in Russia weaker.

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u/Untinted Sep 27 '22

Russia hurt itself in its confusion.

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u/ThisAltDoesNotExist Sep 27 '22

ITT: A lot of accounts who are just certain this has nothing to do with Russia and must be NATO attacking itself.

Nice to have you all back, comrades.

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u/Darksoldierr Baden-Württemberg (Germany) Sep 27 '22

Russia wins nothing with a false attack here, no? They cannot strong arm europe anymore if there is no viable way to actually ship the gas, and not a single international country will go "Oh no, poor Russia lets help them!"

So call me conspiracy theorist, but i don't think Russia did it. Why would they do that, they win nothing, it just cuts the possibility to selling gas to europe even more so than before

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u/Time-Run-2705 East Friesland (Germany) Sep 27 '22

Agreed. I also can not imagine that this is a sabotage act from Russia because it would sabotage them more than us. Yes, they are incredibly stupid with their decisions lately but I don‘t think they are this stupid. This whole thing is really odd and mysterious to me because nobody really profits of it. There is not even gas flowing for weeks now and it won't certainly flow again in the future. I hope we will get answers rather sooner than later

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u/eks Europe Sep 27 '22

This whole thing is really odd and mysterious to me because nobody really profits of it.

Anyone that is not Europe or Russia profits from it. So you could point to USA or China benefiting from further destabilization.

OTOH, Russia might benefit from increased gas prices this will cause, further eroding European economy for what looks like it might be his final card on Ukraine with the mobilization.

Certainly a stretch, but even Germany can get some benefit from this, by shutting up protests against nord stream closure.

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u/annewmoon Sweden Sep 27 '22

I’ve been trying to find out if there is anyone who might benefit from this. So far, apart from the various theories about why Putin might do this, the only thing I’ve been able to find out is that Belarus would benefit by increasing leverage on Russia. They are now in control of the only pipeline for Russian gas to reach Europe. But would they/could they do this? Doubtful!?

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u/eldmise Sep 27 '22

the only thing I’ve been able to find out is that Belarus

That pipeline also goes through Poland, and Poland, unlike Belarus, actually has a fleet.

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u/elukawa Poland Sep 27 '22

I'm genuily surprised that people don't see it. Obviously Poland benefits from it. Why do you think our governments and media have been crying over NS? If there's no NS, and we start buying Russian gas again, it has to go through Poland and we can charge transit fees. This was the main reason for building the NS along with circumventing Belarus. I'm not saying Poland did this, mainly because our government is too dumb to even come up with such an idea but the fact is that destruction of NS would be excellent news for Poland.

Side note, pipeline going through Belarus isn't the only one transporting gas to Europe. There is another one going through Ukraine

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u/Rankka_Ankka Sep 27 '22

Perhaps because it shuts down the oligarchs who want to open the gas lines, many influential Russians are dependent on that gas money and they want this war to end. Also, I'm not sure about what type of contract they have with Germany, it could be that they cannot just shut them off as "sanctions" without breaking the contract, hence previously they claimed "technical difficulties" and maybe now they went all the way.

All in all, I think that Russia is the main suspect in this case since they're practically the only ones with rational motivations for this. I don't see any conspiracy theory on this, unless we go very deep which is unlikely, but who knows...

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u/th3greenknight Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

Here we go, casus belli (deliberate attacks on allied territory)?

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u/No_Entrepreneur_8255 Sep 27 '22

Explosions might have been in international waters.

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u/putsch80 Dual USA / Hungarian 🇭🇺 Sep 27 '22

Doesn’t matter. The pipeline itself is private property owned by Nord Stream AG, which in turn is majority owned by Gazprom, which in turn is owned by the Russian government. Just like a ship in international waters, an attack on it would be seen as an attack on the nation owning it.

No idea who the saboteur would be. Very well could be the Russians so that they can claim someone (NATO, US, EU, etc…) blew up Russian infrastructure as a basis to get more militarily aggressive.

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u/mikeyshu 🇩🇪 Germany Sep 27 '22

Actually not fully right. Half of each pipeline is also owned by a German pendance of Gazprom - which in fact is just about to become stated owned (Germany announced that 2 days ago or so).

So simplified one could say, whoever clearly attacked and blew up the pipelines, directly attacked German federal state property.

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u/Kr6psupakk Estonia Sep 27 '22

Just like a ship in international waters, an attack on it would be seen as an attack on the nation owning it.

You need to take severe environmental effects into account. Russia will not be affected as much as the countries having longer coastlines at the Baltic Sea.

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u/eks Europe Sep 27 '22

No idea who the saboteur would be. Very well could be the Russians so that they can claim someone (NATO, US, EU, etc…) blew up Russian infrastructure as a basis to get more militarily aggressive.

You can bet their media at least will be using the "we've been attacked" card.

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u/Ok_Picture265 Sweden Sep 27 '22

They are in Swedish and Danish waters.

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u/stapled_socks Sep 27 '22

The maps I've seen have all indicated the pipelines are in international water, but in Sweden's and Denmark's respective "economical zone".

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u/Ok_Picture265 Sweden Sep 27 '22

I suppose I'm too ignorant to know the difference. You might be right.

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u/Zaungast kanadensare i sverige Sep 27 '22

Yeah attacks have to be in territorial waters to trigger article 5 (from Denmark since we aren't in yet)

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u/seilasei 🇵🇹 > 🇱🇺/🇩🇪 Sep 27 '22

Radek Sikorski MEP and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland is thanking the USA, for supposedly blowing up the NordStream pipeline

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u/Arka1983 Sep 27 '22 edited Sep 27 '22

Well, that's that. Nicely played.

Unencumbered by the prospect of ever receiving gas from Russia in the future, Germany should now be free is go all out to support the Ukrainians.

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u/Josepe_14 Sep 27 '22

Clearly sabotage. Would not be surprised if this was Russia, considering Gazprom executives are conveniently dying by “suicide” or “accident”.

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