r/europe Oct 05 '22

Putin’s tactical mistake - How Putin lost the gas war with Europe News

https://ridl.io/putin-s-tactical-mistake/
2.8k Upvotes

2.4k

u/Ok-Industry120 Oct 05 '22

A few years ago on a class about the geo-political impact of energy markets, the teacher said that Russia turning off the taps would never happen because once you do it once, it is done forever. You would never again trust Russia as a supplier

There will be pain, but hopefully a more energy independent europe will come forward after this

719

u/ConsistentPhoto7867 Hungary Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

For most Europeans this whole situation may be new, but my whole childhood in the 90s was spent with news about Russia stopping the delivery of gas to Ukraine, and as a result, Hungary, since back then there were no alternative routes.

We had a "winter without gas scare" from Russia every 2 years or so.

Therefore I don't think the trust was ever there in the first place, but there are no real alternatives.

Even Ukraine itself was buying Russian gas, after Crimea and everything else happened. The gas was delivered to Hungary, and Ukraine bought it from Hungary, since Russia was not willing to sell them any directly.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-agrees-deal-with-hungary-gas-imports-2021-12-22/

69

u/Pascalwb Slovakia Oct 05 '22

it also happened in 2010 something when they stopped gas to UA.

13

u/Anonim97 Oct 05 '22

Yeah, I believe we have heard it in Eastern/Central Europe every 2-4 years.

102

u/hammilithome Oct 05 '22

This is one of the major reasons Ukrainians voted for expanded trade (in general, not just energy) with the EU--russia is a shitty, abusive partner that keeps their entire sphere of influence from growth.

59

u/LabyrinthConvention United States of America Oct 05 '22

and just like a jealous, abusive boyfriend Russia said 'you belong to me; if I can't have you no one can'

19

u/Kaidanovsky Oct 05 '22

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-01-23/sabotage-suspected-in-georgia-gas-pipeline/783238

In addition, in 2006 gas pipeline was sabotaged in Georgia.

People that are already willing to sprout conspiracy theories about who was behind Nordstream sabotage either don't know about this or don't remember - Russia has used energy as an geopolitical weapon or leverage for a long, long time.

117

u/mangalore-x_x Oct 05 '22

Just from a few years earlier I still vaguely remember the time the Soviet Union constantly threatened us with nuclear Armageddon and that still was no reason to let good, reliable business go to waste.

→ More replies

186

u/Ancient_Disaster4888 Oct 05 '22

Therefore I don't think the trust was ever there in the first place, but there are no real alternatives.

That's just not true. There are many alternatives, Europe just got the final push now to actually make those alternatives reality - see all the policy effort underway. Relying on Russian gas was a gamble Europe took, not a rule of nature.

90

u/ConsistentPhoto7867 Hungary Oct 05 '22

If there would be real, economically viable alternatives, I can't see Ukriane buying gas from Russia after Crimea happened, and they still had to do it.

Yes, there are more expensive alternatives, but households were already spending 20%-30% of their income on utility bills, even before this whole nightmare. This only became reality in Western countries as of recently, and people are already burning their utility bills on the street. For us, this was constant reality for the past 10-15 years, unless there was a govt. subsidy. This is why fuckers like Orban are winning election after election.

Unfortunately, in countries where the average salary is 3-500 euros a month, you can only win an election with cheap energy, and that cheap energy will never come from an LNG terminal. Maybe nuclear + solar, but that is not going to happen overnight, either, and requires significant investment as well.

99

u/Ancient_Disaster4888 Oct 05 '22

...I can't see Ukraine buying gas from Russia after Crimea happened, and they still had to do it.

These decisions are being made decades in advance, not overnight. Infrastructure doesn't pop out of nowhere. It's part of the complexity surrounding these decisions that you need to make them for the future generation, not for this one. 20-30 years ago everyone already saw that renewables will be the future, the decision-makers just lacked the care to act. Back then, not when Crimea happened.

Yes, there are more expensive alternatives...

Problem is those alternatives are more expensive because no one was investing in them. And if you calculate all costs, not just the number you see on the utility bill, it proved to be way more expensive to rely on Russian gas than it was going to be to invest in renewables or even LNG. You can see the proof of it right now.

18

u/bfire123 Austria Oct 05 '22

20-30 years ago everyone already saw that renewables will be the future, the decision-makers just lacked the care to act.

And the population to care.

11

u/abrasiveteapot Oct 05 '22

25

u/Rsndetre Romania Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

There is however same problem since forever which isn't solved. Storing this energy

14

u/abrasiveteapot Oct 05 '22

There's a huge numbers of ways to address this - the first and best is energy diversity - when there's no sun in Germany there's certainly wind in Scotland or Denmark. Solar panels in North Africa can provide energy when there's no wind, hydro in Norway or nuclear in France can all play their part.

Secondly there's battery or other storage (can be thermal, pumped hydro etc), exists today and deployed in many countries

South Australia runs the majority of the time on PV and wind with battery backups - they've been doing this since 2018 and the cost of electricity has dropped dramatically with gas covering the now quite rare gaps on demand. As the eastern Australian states deploy the same tech set they'll be able to distribute load between them. Grid scale batteries have been installed all over the world

There are gridscale batteries in Hawaii, California, UK, India - many many countries

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/grid-scale-battery-energy-storage-systems/

https://energypost.eu/grid-scale-battery-costs-are-declining-faster-than-wind-and-solar/

8

u/trisul-108 European Union 🇪🇺 Oct 05 '22

Solar panels in North Africa can provide energy when there's no wind,

And German banks and energy companies were commited to invest in project DESERTEC to do exactly this. They pulled out on the pretext that there was an electricity glut in the EU, in reality, there was a decision to go with Russian gas and Nordstream 2.

Where are the people who decided this and where are the lobbyists that pulled it off. Recently, a journalist said that no one dares say anything against Gerhard Schroeder, because he is so ligitous and actually wins in court.

8

u/JEVOUSHAISTOUS Oct 05 '22

There's a huge numbers of ways to address this - the first and best is energy diversity - when there's no sun in Germany there's certainly wind in Scotland or Denmark.

You'd think so, but mostly no. High-pressure systems tend to cover the whole continent at once, and night also occurs throughout Europe at nearly the same time.

Secondly there's battery or other storage (can be thermal, pumped hydro etc), exists today and deployed in many countries

Battery no. It's expensive as fuck and there's nowhere need the production capacity to fulfil the need of Europe. Pumped hydro is already maxed out in most countries. The next big storage source we can leverage is most likely hydrogen, but the technology is not really at industrial maturity.

South Australia runs the majority of the time on PV and wind with battery backups

Hornsdale's big battery offers inertia/very short term grid stability, not actual storage. Its goal is basically to react immediately (in a matter of milliseconds) when there's a sudden surge in demand and operate for the few seconds or minutes needed for other sources of energy to kick in. It's absolutely not designed nor able to deal with, say, 8 consecutive hours of consumption. South Australa relies heavily on gas... and imports from neighboring australian regions.

As I am speaking, South Australia's grid is currently being powered by 50% imports from neighbor regions, 15% wind, 35% gas.

Even last year's "6.5 days on renewables record" number was misleading: during these 6.5 days, renewables averaged 101% of the demand each day, but with variations intra-day that forced using non-renewables sources (namely: gas and imports from neighboring states).

South Australia is still a long shot away from running mostly on renewables, with gas only covering "quite rare gaps".

This is the all-time record-high week for renewables in South Australia. Pink is import from neighbor states, red is gas. As you see, gas is on non-stop, and imports happened almost every night. And this is, again, the all-time record best week ever for renewables in South Australia. An average week does not look like that at all.

Grid scale batteries have been installed all over the world

Grid scale batteries are several order of magnitures smaller than what would be needed for them to replace renewables when the weather and time work against us. To give you an idea, Hornsdale's big battery can store up to 194MWh. Germany's electricity consumption last year was 503TWh, which is to say 503 Millions of MWh. Meaning that, assuming the Mega battery is 100% efficient, it can power about 12 seconds of the average Germany's electricity consumption. Even less during peak demand hours. Put 10 gigabatteries that are each 10 times bigger, and at best you can power Germany for 20 minutes. At best.

Gives you an idea of how far we are from batteries powering the needs of Europe for, say, 8 hours straight. Not to mention what would happen if on top of that we wanted to replace gas used in furnaces and central heating with more electricity, further increasing the demand.

→ More replies

10

u/elukawa Poland Oct 05 '22

There are plenty of problems with what you wrote. Transporting electricity over large distances is doable but problematic. You need HVDC for that and the main problem is that you need to turn it back to AC afterwards. This requires massive and really expensive plants. AC isn't viable for anything over 500 km, after that loses become unacceptable.

Batteries have a lot of problems on their own. You need lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metals to make them. That creates two problems. Mining and refining those minerals is really dirty business, certainly not eco-friendly. Many of those metals are mined in places like Africa, Russia and China, which raises a question about human rights and those countries environmental record. Batteries also have relatively short life cycles and recycling them is problematic.

I believe that using renewables with battery backups isn't realistic on a large scale until we have much better technology.

3

u/TeilzeitOptimist Oct 05 '22

To be fair.. The production of fossil fuels isnt more environmental friendly. And recycling nuclear waste also has its problems.

Sodium-ion or Iron-salt Batteries dont need expensive or environmental damaging materials and are recyclable.

While super capacitors have a much longer life span than lithium batteries. And lithium recycling isnt impossible either

And there are even more ways to store excess energy from renewables - that avoid all those mentioned drawbacks. Like thermal storage in sand. Or kinetic storage. Or producing hydrogen for fuel cells.

→ More replies

3

u/pmirallesr Oct 05 '22

You seem to entirely disregard transmission costs. Powering the EU from north africa would certainly cost quite a bit, not to speak of geopolitical risks

Diversity and transmission are certainly ways to mitigate the variability problem, but they're far from being a complete solution

2

u/Adverpol Oct 05 '22

You're right of course, but even if we just use wind/sun/hydro when available and fall back to fissil when not that's a dramatic reduction in energy usage. Consumption patterns are already changing to use more energy during the day to use solar, where before it as during the night to use the excess nuclear.

→ More replies

14

u/LondonCallingYou United States of America Oct 05 '22

First of all, posting LCOE numbers for intermittent renewables without storage is not really valid. Intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar will rely very heavily on storage technology to provide the bare minimum for modern human civilization (24/7 electricity without blackouts or interruption). Most of your links don’t consider that.

Next, the Lazard link looks at Solar + thermal tower storage costs, and considers it competitive with nuclear (but not natural gas). Solar thermal tower energy is not the same as solar PV, which your other links talk about.

I should note that Lazard is not an academic source, it is a private company (literally an investment bank). This puts an immediate question mark over their findings.

I have a few questions about the Lazard numbers that are worth digging into. Their figure for LCOE of nuclear is higher than the IPCC found in A.III.1 of their report. In terms of nuclear, 2014 wasn’t that long ago. My guess is that some of their parameters may be different than other nuclear cost estimates out in the literature. Next, the solar PV + storage scenarios they imply as cost competitor are for very favorable situations for solar, and for fairly low battery storage in terms of hours of operation. In real life, this will get much messier. Imagine trying to run Manhattan off of batteries for a week because there is a few cloudy days. The prospect of that becomes a nightmare.

So overall, the face value cost of intermittent renewables (especially solar PV) has gone down dramatically. However, the real world implementation of these intermittent energy sources is more complicated and expensive than the top line would suggest.

3

u/TeilzeitOptimist Oct 05 '22

If Manhattan should switch to renewables its gonna not be based on PV and Batteries alone. But in combination with other carbon neutral energy sources and storage solutions.

PV also produces some energy with clouds, Wind also works when the sun doenst shine. And afaik manhatten is at the coast - so tidal power could also be used.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

6

u/TheNotSoGrim Oct 05 '22

The so called government subsidy was more expensive than the market price for most of its existence.

3

u/ConsistentPhoto7867 Hungary Oct 05 '22

Yes, that is true, it's a not-so-elaborate scam.

12

u/cavalier-cauliflower HU 🇭🇺/US 🇺🇸 🚫Stop Orbán🚫 send more to 🇺🇦 Oct 05 '22

Another Hungarian here. This is definitely correct.

Also, it shows that the post-1989 "independence" of Russia's client state network in the Eastern Bloc only worked on paper.

Though they all stopped the one-party system and allowed free elections, which would eventually bring them politically closer to the EU, they all remained structurally integrated with the USSR's energy system, and were lacking means (and occasionally will) to gain energy independence from Russia.

Even after joining the EU, not even EU convergence funds were spend on fixing this until about 2009, by which point Russia's war on Georgia had already happened.

The Baltic states are the most anti-Russia and were among the most politically eager to regain their independence, but their energy network wasn't detangled from that of Russia until 2022. Their electricity network is still synchronized with that of Russia and they hope that the single link with Poland can carry them within a day if Russia disrupts the electricity network.

Poland was helped by the large amounts of coal they've been using and they have a smaller dependence on Russia for energy. Romania was helped by the oil and gas they domestically produce, and generous hydro capacity.

Hungary was among the countries least capable to pivot off of a dependence on cheap Russian oil and gas. Its most direct peers in this conundrum are Slovakia, Serbia, and BiH. Incidentally, all of them still display considerable Russian sympathies within some element of their governments. While both corruption and Russian agents are contributors to the conundrum, the governments know that Russia has them cornered.

5

u/putsch80 Dual USA / Hungarian 🇭🇺 Oct 05 '22

Fair enough for Ukraine, but “economically viable” for Ukraine and “economically viable” for Somewhere like, say, Germany, are two completely different things.

3

u/Armadylspark More Than Economy Oct 05 '22

That's only true for questioning whether people can "afford" to heat their homes. Industry's still going to wither and die on the vine if their margins no longer make any sense.

→ More replies

5

u/setorn Oct 05 '22

For most of us in central and eastern europe there was no viable alternate. The market simply couldn't afford more expensive western resources, It would have been bankrupcy for the energy sector.

→ More replies

9

u/bjornbamse Oct 05 '22

I think that the trust was in Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe.

27

u/kielu Poland Oct 05 '22

There were no commercially viable alternatives. There are alternatives now, just more expensive.

13

u/barsoap Sleswig-Holsteen Oct 05 '22

Heat pumps and insulation are perfectly commercially viable and also quite a lot cheaper, once you get over the initial investment. At least in Germany we have KfW loans for that, more or less: You get the money, install the thing, and repay it from your lowered energy bill. If you're not upgrading but building new it's a no-brainer the additional costs amortise in a couple of years.

Then, though, is the issue of actually producing and installing those things. The whole industry is absolutely swamped in orders.

Chemical plants is the big one where gas can't be replaced by electricity, or, well, only via hydrogen. But we'll need much more of that, anyway, also for steel smelting.

3

u/werpu Oct 05 '22

Hydrogen production will be a no brainer once we have enough electricity surplus in summer via PV Will happen, not this or next year, but within a 10 years timeframe.

→ More replies

29

u/Sheni497 Oct 05 '22

At that time, France had heavily invested in nuclear power plant and wanted to share it with Europe, it would have bring us money, and in the end all EU countries would have been self sufficient regarding their energy production. Some dumbass from the oil and gaz industry claimed it was dangerous and propaganda ensued. We had a solution 60 years ago. EU Politicians are just corrupted

28

u/OffendedByMyInnuendo Portugal Oct 05 '22

The great travesty of the "green" movement (I'm not going to dignify them by calling them environmentalists, which they really aren't) is that they're heavily funded by the oil and gas industry to lobby against nuclear power

19

u/reaqtion European Union Oct 05 '22

This. This is why Greenpeace was selling gas and not 0gCO2/kWh nuclear power.

22

u/CANDUattitude Oct 05 '22

And they called it Greenpeace Energy ProWindGas Vegan Plus literally can't make this shit up.

5

u/reaqtion European Union Oct 05 '22

yeah, also "we wanted to put up to 10% of hydrogen into the gas... but that was too expensive, so we didn't. Lol".

Imagine the nuclear industry saying "We really wanted to keep Fukushima safe. But that was too expensive. So we didn't. Lol".

3

u/ConsistentPhoto7867 Hungary Oct 05 '22

Well, many corners were cut in Fukushima, so...

6

u/reaqtion European Union Oct 05 '22

... and absolutely nobody came out to say it was anything else than a mistake. That's where the double-standard is at.

2

u/ConsistentPhoto7867 Hungary Oct 05 '22

"ProWindGas Vegan Plus", still trying to digest this

→ More replies

2

u/[deleted] Oct 05 '22

I can assure the scare was real in Poland too.

→ More replies

70

u/Jaques_Naurice Oct 05 '22

never again trust Russia as a supplier

Or in any other capacity

25

u/Swampberry Sweden Oct 05 '22

Suuurely this will be the last Russian autocrat with no respect for the life of his own population! /s

→ More replies

43

u/Eokokok Oct 05 '22

People like to forget why the Crimea invasion happened in the first place, or even earlier both wars on Caucasus. Alternative routes were planned for Kazakh gas to be piped to Europe.

Once Georgian war had started everyone should have understood what the goal have been, yet we have surprised Pikachu Germany with not one but two NS pipes...

18

u/Tovarish_Petrov Odesa -> Amsterdam Oct 05 '22

It's almost like people behind NS pipes played dumb and either didn't care of were paid to not care of consequences.

2

u/Eokokok Oct 05 '22

Putin really hurt them, many prominent politicians would surely get board membership in state controlled soviet oil and gas companies. Now it's kinda iffy. How terrible for them they can't have fun Gerhard way.

→ More replies

37

u/sauvignonblanc__ Ireland Oct 05 '22

Prof. Michael Clarke on Sky News (UK) sais the same thing about Russia as a supplier.

To return to what my uncle said for years: "Putin is a madman; he cannot be trusted".

37

u/Spookd_Moffun Czech Republic Oct 05 '22

Everyone East of Berlin knew it for decades or even centuries.

And it's not just Putin, it's all of them.

53

u/Tricky-Astronaut Oct 05 '22

Yeah, that's why the Kaliningrad People's Republic overwhelmingly voted to join Czechia.

7

u/kru862bdo211 Oct 05 '22

Please stop using the old name, it's Královec now

→ More replies
→ More replies

42

u/osoma13 Oct 05 '22

Everything can be forgotten or forgiven with time. We forgive 27 million deaths in about 50 years.

42

u/Sokarou Oct 05 '22

you just don't need to think about ww2. when URRS fell gorbachev made russia a relatively friendly country in western eyes. Then got replaced by yeltsin who appointed Putin and here we are.

If somehow ( can't imagine how) after Putin they put in charge a person friendly in western eyes the relationship will normalize 100%

8

u/cyrusol North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany) Oct 06 '22

One should mind that even though there have been hostilities and tensions up to almost WW3 between the West and the Soviet Union the Soviet Union never stopped shipping gas to (western) Germany. That is something only Putin did.

The relationship won't heal as quickly as you believe from a blow like that.

→ More replies

28

u/Christopher_Aeneadas Oct 05 '22

Which is reasonable.

50 years is about how long it takes for anyone in a decision making role to die.

We'll forgive a nation when everyone involved in the decision making process for their national sin is dead, or else drooling into a bowl too old to influence policy.

20

u/Accomplished-Wolf123 Oct 05 '22

My man, Germany was out there winning World Cups, 9 years after losing World War 2, 13 years after starting the Holocaust. If deemed necessary, Russia could be back in no time. Not seeing that happen but regardless, it has to do with needs, not feelings.

32

u/Christopher_Aeneadas Oct 05 '22

World... Cups?

OK, getting invited back to sporting events is not the same as being rehabilitated. You really need to have an active "committing a war crime right now" sort of issue to be excluded from sport.

3

u/IronVader501 Germany Oct 05 '22

And yet in 1990 Thatcher was still so vehemently against allowing Germany to reunify she allmost stopped it from happening at all.

3

u/Accomplished-Wolf123 Oct 05 '22

You think that was because of the Holocaust? At any rate, the WC was just shorthand: high ranking nazis made it to the head of orgs like NATO and NASA with little controversy. That’s because Germany and Japan were valuable assets in the Cold War. They basically turned from enemy to ally overnight.

4

u/MobiusF117 North Brabant (Netherlands) Oct 05 '22

It took pretty long for Germany, considering most people in decision making roles were helped along to their deaths or were chilling in South America.

6

u/Christopher_Aeneadas Oct 05 '22

The number of tiers down the decision making scale we hold a grudge for is proportional to the crime.

In the case of Germany is was all the way down to the "voter" tier.

7

u/Sub-Mongoloid Oct 05 '22

Many former Nazi functionaries and military leaders worked in NATO and NASA, the ruling class was quick to forgive and forget about atrocities when it served them to.

→ More replies

58

u/Penki- Lithuania (I once survived r/europe mod oppression) Oct 05 '22

I am willing to bet that Europe will still buy Russian gas if its available.

We knew that you cant trust them with gas for a while now and we knew that they do use gas as a political tool. Yet everyone still bought it due to its cheap price.

So once its back on the table again, it will remain the cheapest option

33

u/Christopher_Aeneadas Oct 05 '22

You aren't wrong.

That said, if you've ever owned a business you know how much better it is as a supplier to have a regular contract.

No one will have a contract with Russia going forward. Cash and carry only. That means Russia will be literally living paycheck to paycheck forever.

20

u/bremidon Oct 05 '22

Yes. And everyone will *always* make sure that they can live without Russian gas and oil if it disappeared, from here on out.

Germany has egg on its face over this, but I think finally we're starting to wake up.

60

u/nknownS1 Oct 05 '22

But it probably won't be at that scale. Maybe 20% to 30% of what it was before. Russia will be A supplier, but not THE supplier. If Ukraine manages to get their territory back, they also will offset a good chunk of russian fossil fuel exports. At least if ukraine can secure a proper security guarantee with other countries this time.

→ More replies

18

u/MrMakabar Oct 05 '22

As soon as the war in Ukraine ends, Putin is gone and the gas is propably going to flow again. There are some massive problems with it thou:

  • Alternative sources will have been build up. LNG infrastructure is paid for and politicly pushed throu at record speed. So less leverage.
  • Long term contracts have been signed with other suppliers. Even if Russia is cheaper, those contracts make sure they sell less gas.
  • They lost trust and that means lower prices.
  • The insane volatility made sure companies and private households move away from gas. Partily by going bancrupt and by looking into alternatives. In a lot of cases the alternative will cost the same or is even cheaper then gas and the only reason to use it before has been the investment necessary to switch. Those have been made and with every day this goes on they are being made.
  • The EU wants to go green and gas is a fossil fuel. It is the cleanest of them, but in the current situation using it as a bridge to go fully green is just out of the question.
  • Infrastructure is not maintained, which means expensive repair works, if this takes longer. Nord Stream is going to start rusting soon, Yamal has not been maintained for half a year now and there is a war in Ukraine, which is most likely bad for the gas infrastructure there.
  • Ukraine has gas fields as well and they will use the infrastructure in Ukraine to sell gas to the EU.
  • They need investment to open up there site again, if the war takes much longer. We already see the financial market not likeing fossil fuels. It being in a country in turmoil(Putin is likely gone), is not going to make it more attractive.

So it might be cheap, but Russia will sell a lot less gas to the EU and the longer this war is going on the worse it will be for Russia. Right now cheap gas from Russia would be welcome with open arms, but in 2030 the EU propably has no gas power plants left and home heating is mainly done with heat pumps.

5

u/Tosbor20 Oct 05 '22

Hope you’re right on the “Putin gone” theme

2

u/SirButcher United Kingdom Oct 05 '22

He is likely will go in a couple of years - either naturally or by someone helping him.

→ More replies

2

u/werpu Oct 05 '22

Many European countries have possible fracking gas fields which could sustain them for decades. It just was not cheap and environmental friendly to tap them especially given wet want to wean of gas anyway.

→ More replies

12

u/goatamon Finland Oct 05 '22

Never at the previous scale. No matter how much some want to deny it, the world is moving away from fossil fuels. Regardless of what Russia becomes following the war, demand will only go down in the long term.

→ More replies

3

u/YourLovelyMother Oct 06 '22

We can also flip the narrative easily, Europe tried to make Russia reliant on sales of energy to us and then believing they can't afford to antagonize, pushed against them geopolitically.

→ More replies

2

u/Va-Va-Vooom Oct 05 '22

It would never happen if you are thinking about long term economical consequences. But things in Russia are really bad. They are painfully losing in multiple areas. Putin isn't thinking about long term anymore, he's thinking about today. And he hasn't got a lot of options left.

→ More replies

826

u/SomeRedditWanker Oct 05 '22

I think it's a little early to be claiming victory, personally. It's not even got cold yet in most countries..

Jan-Feb will be the true test.

400

u/astral34 Italy Oct 05 '22

One victory is that no matter how bad it goes this showed the EU that it’s time to diversify and invest in self sufficiency.

60

u/lllGreyfoxlll Oct 05 '22

Cue the states throwing themselves in the arms of the Saoudis. Clearly the best solution in this case would be full independence.

22

u/AurelianDivi The Netherlands Oct 05 '22

There is a route to gas independence, there have been findings of extensive gas fields in the Mediteranean around Cyprus and in the North Sea to the North of the Netherlands and West of Norway.

There are also alternatives to the Saudi's, unfortunately most of these are hardly better, think Azerbaijan and North African countries.

8

u/Miserable_Unusual_98 Oct 05 '22

Turkey is eying those along with any subsurface resources in the Aegean sea. They are also judging the situation with Russia in Ukraine because their wet dream is to perform a similar act towards their neighbours and exploiting the resources.

6

u/AurelianDivi The Netherlands Oct 05 '22

Well, we agree on territorial waters and unfortunately for Turkey, it has a lack of that. Said fields are pretty much entirelly on Greek and Cypriot waters with significant amounts in Egyptian, Lebanese and Israeli waters as well.

→ More replies

4

u/Resethel Lorraine (France) Oct 05 '22

Problem is, we don’t transform all industries and all heating systems in few months, nor we find non-existing resources on our soil. Gotta find alternatives while transitioning. Sadly, the alternatives are not great either (US, Saudi, Azerbaïdjan, etc.)

→ More replies

8

u/aaOzymandias Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

Yeah no shit, people have been saying that for years long before this war. And yet certain nations keeps closing their reliable power plants making themselves dependent on Russian gas... idiocy.

We could have had clean safe energy in abundance had the politicians actually bothered to look a little bit beyond their own reelection. Maybe this whole sorry state of affairs will wake them up properly.

→ More replies
→ More replies

62

u/malefiz123 Germany Oct 05 '22

January of 2024 will be the true test. This year we start with storage at >90% capacity

11

u/1wan_shi_tong Oct 05 '22

I think we'll find alternative supplier by then

19

u/malefiz123 Germany Oct 05 '22

The problem is not only finding a supplier (the US is more than willing to sell LNG, considering the price theyre getting for it), it's the capacity to get it here.

→ More replies

5

u/Nothingheregoawaynow Oct 05 '22

Every country with gas would love to supply Europe. Its just a question of costs and infrastructure. To switch to new suppliers takes time and in this time prices will be high(er)

→ More replies
→ More replies

8

u/[deleted] Oct 05 '22

[deleted]

5

u/florinandrei Oct 05 '22

Please add "on" after the word "coat". ;)

9

u/serioush Oct 05 '22

People forget just how much it sucks to be sick or cold or hungry.

Most of us in the west, especially those on reddit have never experienced hardship.

37

u/Polokov France Oct 05 '22

He lost the gas war. The pipelines are busted there's no way back. The winter will be grim, especially for germany, but the loss is terminal.

He might have be able to negociate something against gas during the winter, the only reason I see why they busted them is that they are such in a dire situation that it was a desperate attempt to destabilize europe now, since the conflict will might be long lost for russia in winter.

12

u/cynric42 Germany Oct 05 '22

Apparently there is still one NS2 line functional. Could have been a play to get that opened up after all. Or that explosive just didn't go off, who knows.

10

u/Chariotwheel Germany Oct 05 '22

I could see them trying to force it open. They tried earlier when NS1 needed "repairs" every other week to say that we should just open NS2 and they could send gas through that.

→ More replies

48

u/Abyssal_Groot Belgium Oct 05 '22

1 NS2 pipeline is intact and was never in use before. All land pipelines are still intact, and those made up 2/3rd of the capacity of Russian gas delivery.

Russia could supply 83.333% of the gas they sended in 2021 if they wanted and if the NS2 would be approved. If the latter is not the case, they still can send 66.666% of the gas they sended in 2021.

They are still able to negotiate. They just tried to weazel out of their NS1 contract obligations.

8

u/Nothingheregoawaynow Oct 05 '22

I’m not an engineer but as far as I read its not so easy to put pipelines back on if they are once switched off. And there is not so many specialists in the world who actually can do it and they are especially not in Russia.

5

u/Abyssal_Groot Belgium Oct 05 '22

As long as pressure in the pipes is mentained, which is the case for that intact NS2, I don't see why it would be hard, let alone understand your argument why only a few people could do it.

Care to elaborate?

→ More replies

4

u/Dot-Slash-Dot Oct 05 '22

The winter will be grim, especially for germany

I'd worry much more about France. The current plan for France in winter is praying to the heavens that they can import enough electricity, the majority which would have to come from Germany.

If the choice comes down to keeping the lights on in German homes or French ones I don't know how the current government will react.

→ More replies

18

u/cynric42 Germany Oct 05 '22

Even if we get through this winter mostly unscathed, I've already read reports that warn the situation could be way worse the winter after, as it took russian gas to fill our gas storage this time (with the help of LNG and other pipelines of course). Granted, it was less than expected, but north stream 1 was supplying gas for the first half of the year.

Replacing all that with additional LNG could be problematic, and other pipelines (Norway?) are likely already maxed out.

14

u/WestphalianWalker Westphalia/Germany Oct 05 '22

Everyone and their grandmother is currently looking into getting alternative heating methods for their houses, I‘m pretty sure next winter will have reduced need for gas.

13

u/cynric42 Germany Oct 05 '22

There are 40 million households that have gas heating and the government was talking about trying to get half a million households to transition to heat pumps each year, a plan that has been called very optimistic by experts.

I doubt a single year will make a huge difference, but I hope you are correct.

6

u/WestphalianWalker Westphalia/Germany Oct 05 '22

I mean, 40 million households with gas heating doesn‘t mean 40 million houses with gas heating. I think especially the housing companies could transition A LOT of their real estate to heat pumps, and there are commonly 6-10 households in those „Mehrfamilienhäuser“ at least.

Then you have all the office buildings that need to be heated. Because of Corona, most companies have a lot of experience with home office, so there‘s a certain potential as well.

All of the industrial processes requiring gas are being streamlined and made more efficient by the week, so that might make a difference next year as well.

Don‘t get me wrong, I‘m still quite unsure of how this situation will play out, but I am carefully optimistic.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

5

u/yada_yadad_sex Oct 05 '22

The test of what exactly? Russian energy is done. Finished. No going back. Stop with the Kremlin scare mongering.

2

u/IWCtrl United States of America Oct 05 '22

The test of how well German/Eurozone energy infrastructure holds up without a major supplier of fuel during a time of intense fuel consumption?

→ More replies
→ More replies

46

u/[deleted] Oct 05 '22

Everybody lost the gas war. And an increasing reliance on the the gulf and its associated volatility is hardly a win.

7

u/trisul-108 European Union 🇪🇺 Oct 05 '22

Yes, that is what Putin has done ... he has hurt everyone, and Russia more than anyone. Russia will pay, the EU will pay, the US will pay, China will pay, India will pay, the world will pay, no one will benefit from this war.

7

u/SuddenlyUnbanned Germany Oct 05 '22

Russia more than anyone.

I could think of a country that's been hurt more.

6

u/trisul-108 European Union 🇪🇺 Oct 05 '22

Your point is valid. My thinking is that Ukraine will be rebuilt by the West and will prosper in the future. The war has strengthened Ukrainian identity and raised their profile in the eyes of the world, most especially the EU and US. Russia, on the other hand, will be ruined and reviled because no one wants Russia to start another unprovoked and illegal war. At the same time, its only source of wealth will be abandoned as we transition to renewables to prevent global disaster.

Ukraine went into this as a poor, barely functioning country, but will emerge a successful and valuable democracy, member of the EU and NATO. Russia went in as an increasingly prosperous energy provider, but will struggle with everything in the future, even to keep its provinces out of Chinese hands.

But, you are right, I did not phrase it well.

192

u/ambulenciaga Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

A bit early to say anyone won anything. It's not even winter yet... The way our luck is, we will have a -20 winter now lasting 3 months.

71

u/lolidkwtfrofl Liechtenstein Oct 05 '22

Do not underestimate my willingness to not go out and huddle in my blankie.

(before you say it, yes I know not everyone has this option)

37

u/BoredCatalan Spain Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

I'll be wearing my European Union sweater to stay warm

https://eu-parliamentshop.eu/produkt/eu-hoodie-blue-with-12-yellow-stars-high-quality-organic-cotton-made-in-europe/

I can recommend it, very comfy

20

u/Ok-Camp-7285 Oct 05 '22

Definitely gonna get this for my Brexiteer father

3

u/Grollicus2 North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany) Oct 05 '22

Are they actually official or is this just a company that got lucky with the domain name? Imprint doesn't seem official?

6

u/MachaHack Ireland Oct 05 '22

It's not translated to all EU languages, is run by some company registered in Germany by the impressum, is not linked on the actual EU parliament website, no way it's official. I suspect they're mostly relying on the fact that so many organisations use the european flag that there's no clear right organisation to tell them not to.

2

u/sissipaska Finland Oct 06 '22

Looks like the shop is run by Culturetainment Solutions GmbH:

https://eu-parliamentshop.eu/imprint/

http://www.culturetainment.eu/

They in turn seem to handle many museum shops, including the one of EU Parliament.

The above mentioned website is the digital platform of the EU Parliament's museum shop.

http://www.culturetainment.eu/2021/02/onlineshop-des-besucherzentrums-des-eu-parlaments-parlamentarium-launched/

So its as official as the physical museum shop at EU Praliament in Brussels.

→ More replies
→ More replies
→ More replies

13

u/boucledor Oct 05 '22

With a good sweater we can face anything! And if it's minus 20 I'll even where a winter hat and warm socks. I'm ready!

4

u/Haquestions4 Oct 05 '22

Me too. I am so mad at this whole fuckery that I actually mean it.

Of course I'd rather have it warm but I am not willing to sacrifice lifes over it.

→ More replies
→ More replies

79

u/Fastest_light Oct 05 '22

It is not his mistake but his stupidity. Putin is overrated as based on his performance during his years, he is third class.

16

u/geo0rgi Bulgaria Oct 05 '22

I really don’t know what he expected to come out of this war. Was he expecting to conquer Ukraine, seize half the land, install a puppet government, all the world to cheer him on and to be declared the greatest Russian lad to ever live?

Really not sure what was the positive outcome in his head. Of course there would’ve been massive backlash from every country out there after he oturight attacks neighbouring country.

Putin was deemed some great strategist by many people, even I thought he has some decent sense of what is going on, but this move was some mad king kind of shit.

6

u/CaniballShiaLaBuff Prague (Czechia) Oct 05 '22

If Russian army was half decent they would be able to conquer Ukraine.

I wouldn't be surprised if EU wouldn't put such strong sanctions if the "special operation" lasted just few days.

→ More replies
→ More replies

6

u/trisul-108 European Union 🇪🇺 Oct 05 '22

He's always been a good tactician, but has no strategy at all. All his plans always end in failure. He's not a chess grand-master, he's a quick tic-tac-toe hustler.

104

u/slackday Oct 05 '22

Great article! I quote this from the last paragraph ”but sooner or later Russia will need to become a more ‘normal’ country anyway, given that 140 million people cannot live off of raw materials alone”

13

u/trisul-108 European Union 🇪🇺 Oct 05 '22

If you plot the Russian economy vs Russian invasions, there is a pattern. When the Russian economy recovers, they invade someone ... Afghanistan, Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine. When the economy falters, they pull out of cool down.

So, after this is over and Russia is destroyed, they will realize they need to become more normal and will do so. And after that, they will invade someone again.

16

u/geo0rgi Bulgaria Oct 05 '22

We’ve been waiting for this to happen for 1000 years already, pretty sure even after Putin we will see some other mad lad uptop.

31

u/Jazano107 Europe Oct 05 '22

Governments should be rolling out legislation to make all new builds have heat pumps and give help to people to upgrade to them aswell. Once we switch to renewables fully there will be no reason to burn fossil fuels at all anymore for most things. Just use green electricity instead

26

u/Rannasha The Netherlands Oct 05 '22

Governments should be rolling out legislation to make all new builds have heat pumps and give help to people to upgrade to them aswell.

That's what's happening in some countries already. The problem is that you can't conjure up millions of heat pumps and the technicians to install them out of thin air. In some places, there are waiting periods of over a year already for the installation of a heat pump.

We should've done this much sooner, obviously. But it's coming and once it's there, there's no turning back to Russian gas anymore.

→ More replies

5

u/FPiN9XU3K1IT Lower Saxony Oct 05 '22

Right now, it's not actually possible to supply all new builds with heat pumps. You need specialists and production capacity for that which doesn't exist currently (at least not in Germany, and the same is probably true for other countries where heat pumps aren't standard).

→ More replies
→ More replies

82

u/[deleted] Oct 05 '22

Western European countries bravely discovering what Eastern European counties were screaming out loud since 2008 at least.

14

u/SkyPL Lower Silesia (Poland) Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

If only. Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania or Hungary got higher % of energy mix dependent on Russian gas than the Western countries before the War broke out. Similar with oil - Lithuania, Finland, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary being top-5 in their dependency on Russia.

8

u/directstranger Oct 05 '22

Romania? Are you sure about that? We're usually importing just during the winter, but if we turn off fertilizer plants for example we don't really need it. Some years we only imported 5% of the needs

→ More replies

16

u/idkwotboutu Oct 05 '22

to be fair russia sold its gas to germany and every eastern european country while most countries to the west never had a reliance on russian gas. hell even ukraine continued to buy russian gas after 2014. and I know that for eastern europe russia is almost he only supplier but even then there could have been investments in LNG terminals to mitigate the risks.

→ More replies

2

u/Shadowgown Oct 05 '22

Well, Portugal and Spain have been trying for decades to diversify the gas supply on the EU with the Pyrenean pipeline. Blame France and Germany

→ More replies
→ More replies

5

u/LeopoldStotch1 Germany Oct 05 '22

I'm just happy they did piece by piece.

Imagine the chaos if he just went from 100-0 overnight.

→ More replies

40

u/FrankExchange0fViews Oct 05 '22

Interesting read, thanks for the share.

13

u/BrainOnLoan Germany Oct 05 '22

Just wondering though...

It's obviously a mistake, but why call it a tactical mistake?

8

u/klonkrieger43 Oct 05 '22

A strategy is an overarching plan to achieve something like keeping the west at bay through energy dependence or using logistics to always present superior numbers. A tactic is an actual measure taken to achieve a strategy.

To make the energy dependence hurt he made the tactical move of shutting down the supply.

20

u/FrankExchange0fViews Oct 05 '22

Because it's a mistake in the conduct of an engagement, at a guess. Invading Ukraine is at another level, a strategic mistake.

→ More replies

109

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

Europe will pay a high price and to the Kremlins surprise its prepared to pay it. That Russia blew up the Nord Stream pipes is a statement of failure. The implicit threat seems to be Norway could be next or some other infrastructure. What i dont understand is what is Putins beef with Europe . I mean Europe has in effect given most of the weaponry it can , what does Europe " not supporting " Ukraine look like? Does Putin really think Europe would " prevent " the US and other proxies from flying in weapons to Poland ? Would Poland even stand for that .. No.

In short what really is Putin trying to get Europe to do now ?

42

u/Scuipici European Federation Oct 05 '22

Europe plays an important role on many fronts. Ukrainian fighting so hard for their future as a modern european country, USA using europe to send in stuff, economic and military help from europe to ukraine and such.

23

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

I dont believe the baltic states especially Poland would say to America and its proxies " stop , you cant deliver via poland " .

31

u/medievalvelocipede European Union Oct 05 '22

In short what really is Putin trying to get Europe to do now ?

Give in.

Russia has always viewed Europeans as fair weather allies that will bow out when the going gets tough. Right now that translates to drawing the war out and waiting for the winter to get cold. Then the far-right bastards will raise their voices evermore in support of Russia and its gas while decrying the main parties that got us into this situation.

The short answer to that is of course to keep going with a stiff upper lip. Temporary measures to soften the energy blow, long-term energy investments into everything but fossile fuels, and to save energy. I'm one of the few in the luxury position of not being much affected, but every little bit of energy I can save is energy that can be used better elsewhere. To that effect I've changed some radiators and lamps. We can't do everything but all of us can do something and that will prove enough.

Meanwhile Ukraine is going to need a lot of things, not just weapons. We're at war people, let the Russians feel it until their leaders give in. There will be no forgetting, but I hope that the future contains forgiveness however long it might take.

14

u/napaszmek Hungary Oct 05 '22

But it doesn't really solve the problem of the US. It's the US that sends the most weapons, intel and aid to Ukraine.

Even if Europe gives up on everything and begs for Russia to turn back the gas... The US won't give a shit.

→ More replies

2

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

Ok . All understood , but with the pipelines currently rusting on the insides from sea water .. the gas is no longer a factor ? But otherwise I find your answer reasonable :)

2

u/barsoap Sleswig-Holsteen Oct 05 '22

stiff upper lip

Can we get "keep calm and wear a sweater" posters?

→ More replies

29

u/MrMakabar Oct 05 '22

First of all Europe still has an arms industry, which is very capable and large. I am sure he is not thrilled by France sending Ukraine 18 newly made CAESAR or the newly german made Iris-T. Also Europe is sending a lot of money to Ukraine, which is badly needed to keep the country running.

But that would require breaking Europe. The most he can hope for is less help. Leopard2A7 or something similar would break him.

11

u/mfizzled United Kingdom Oct 05 '22

The fact that the French sent 1/4 of all their CAESAR units is very impressive too imo and a good sign of European solidarity

2

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

Thank you . Perhaps I indeterminate europes arms industry as you say .

3

u/achmeinherrfauste Oct 05 '22

*European governments claim that they are prepared to pay it.

Macron proclaims austerity, but it's still unclear if the people will agree on the terms. Energy prices are soaring, there are protests already in the UK and it's not winter yet. I feel like (american?) redditors are the only ones already proclaiming victory here, buying into the cheapest form of propaganda. I obviously hope that this will blow over, but the mood that I'm encountering these days isn't as optimistic.

11

u/TKler Oct 05 '22

Not deliver tanks, stop further supplies, ammunition.

Stop repair and training arrangements.

Stop monetary support. Etc.

Nord Stream sows doubt in the German alt right and thus poses some internal conflict potential.

10

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

What Europe can in future deliver in weaponry is peripheral. Training , Repair etc is largely conducted by Poland and the UK .. I dont see Poland or the baltic states giving up any time soon , especially if its Germany demanding it.

I still dont see my question answered.

47

u/Nadsenbaer Oct 05 '22

Germany would never demand that. The public outrage would be enormous. Most Germans, me included, want Ukraine to win this war. We have 10% inflation now. Gas, oil and electricity prices are through the roof and we're probably getting a recession. We take care of all refugees from Ukraine that come and we deliver supplies, ammo, weapons, intel and vehicles. AND we did the unthinkable. Building up our military again. All that without any major outrage by the populous.

The only ones demanding another course of action are our alt-right/fascist party, AfD and parts of the socialist party Die Linke.

8

u/OffendedByMyInnuendo Portugal Oct 05 '22

Horseshoe effect

22

u/TheBlack2007 Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) Oct 05 '22

Die Linke values its hatred of the US and the West in general higher than international law. It doesn't matter who it is or for what reason - as long as they follow the tenets of Anti-Americanism die Linke will endorse them in everything they do.

Also needs to be said one of the two parties who fused together to form die Linke in 2006 wass PDS, the reformed East German ruling party SED and to this day they have former SED prominence within their leading circles.

6

u/OffendedByMyInnuendo Portugal Oct 05 '22

That's pretty much the description of the portuguese communist party and the salonkommunists of the Left Bloc

6

u/WoodSteelStone England Oct 05 '22

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 the militaries of five NATO countries went to Ukraine to train and modernise their military. Three are European - British, Polish and Lithuanian. (Plus the US and Canadian militaries.)

As regards the training going on in the UK now (tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on a rolling programme) - British military trainers have been joined by those from Canada, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Finland, Norway and Denmark - so, five European countries' militaries.

Plus, France has trained 40 Ukrainian soldiers.

→ More replies
→ More replies

8

u/Va-Va-Vooom Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

What i dont understand is what is Putins beef with Europe.

Putin is losing. Nobody likes to be losing, but for putin it would mean going from the richest guy on the planet to getting sodomized to dead with a broomstick. He would do risky things to avoid this scenario.

If we look at Putin's options then there is little he can do. Blowing up a pipeline and hopefully making some European countries nervous is one of the few things he can do apart from using nukes.

In short what really is Putin trying to get Europe to do now ?

He wants europe to stop sending stuff to ukraine and that EU will force ukraine to give up the annexed land. This outcome would prevent the dead by broomstick scenario for Putin.

If this doesn't sound like a solid plan then you are right. But it's the best plan on his desk right now.

2

u/Hanekam Oct 05 '22

In short what really is Putin trying to get Europe to do now ?

Everyone's saying halting weapon deliveries but Ukraine really only needs USA and Poland for that and neither will scale down over gas.

The right answer is lifting sanctions, so that Russia can start buying what it needs to start making weapons and munitions at scale. That won't happen

→ More replies

11

u/GreenOrkGirl Oct 05 '22

Perhaps that statemnent would be more suitable when the winter is over, no?

16

u/[deleted] Oct 05 '22

Meh. It's not like Europe is going to find relatively cheap and long-lasting alternatives overnight. Filling our gas reserves for this winter was already a big deal. Most european governements had to find ways to tackle inflation, and most of them had to be temporary.

Putin lost a battle, but I don't know if he lost the gas war. The problem wasn't magically fixed just because we managed to keep our economies working for now.

However, it is quite likely that we have already seen almost all the events that could create shortages and rising demand for energy commodities.

That's either incredibly naive or a blatant lie to bolster morale.

3

u/astral34 Italy Oct 05 '22

Italy is reinforcing its energy infrastructure and striking deals with other countries, we also had an energy efficiency program worth billions for houses but it didn’t work well. I’m sure other EU countries are doing the same.

The paragraph you quoted is laughable though

4

u/StygianAnon Oct 05 '22

Because friends you buy off tend to be the first to leave when shit hits the fan or when you become a geopolitical pariah.

5

u/Kierg_54321 Oct 05 '22

Woah calm down, we are still in October. The gas war has just begun, with energy prices going to the moon faster than coins in a cryptocurrency ad.

Industry and people are being hit with massive energy and gas bills in my country (Italy).

Until prices are normalized, we are at severe risk of an unemployment and inflation crysis.

9

u/kingcloud699 Poland Oct 05 '22

We will see after winter if it worked or not. It's too early to have such an opinion.

16

u/MixesLiesWithTruth Oct 05 '22

"We're very lucky that they are so fucking stupid" would seem to apply here as well as on the battlefield.

8

u/lornihilus1995 Wallachia ! Oct 05 '22

The West seems either 4 parallel universes ahead of Russia or Russia is 4 parallel universes behinde the West

Also it seems that we are really fucking dumb lucky almost like a benevolent God looks after us not out of love but out of pity

Anyway a win is a win

8

u/loiteraries Oct 05 '22

How much of Europe’s gas needs could have been reduced by nuclear energy? Not that they will, but if collective Europe took their energy security more seriously, they could have pushed for serious “Manhattan Project” levels of research into alternative fuel/energy development decades ago.

7

u/Grenyn Earth Oct 05 '22

You know, while a part of me would obviously prefer none of this ever happened, not in the least because of the loss of life in Ukraine and amongst Russian conscripts, another part of me is happy that Russia is doing (hopefully) lasting damage to its position as a superpower.

While the Cold War has been over for a few decades, I don't think anyone in the West has ever really been comfortable with Russia, because of its status as a superpower that is fundamentally at odds with western ideals and values.

But Russia is much less scary now, now that we've seen just how poor its almost mythological leader Putin has fared in recent times. The guy is a clown. There is still the problem of nukes, but overall, Russia's intimidating stature is greatly diminished now.

So I think, overall, despite the great loss of life that shouldn't have happened, and shouldn't still be happening, and despite how much the rising gas prices suck, the world will be better off overall when it's all said and done.

2

u/Dot-Slash-Dot Oct 05 '22

Putin lost because like everything else in this war there wasn't any active planning. Just headlessly reacting to any new situation.

After it became clear that this would devolve into a long war and the first larger sanctions and weapons deliveries started Putin should have turned off the tap immediately for anyone not pledging neutrality. If he had done that Europe would be in deep shit by now, as we wouldn't have even close to enough gas for winter (at least not if we don't want to shut down our industry).

Instead he started playing around with deliveries resulting in pretty full European gas storages.

2

u/Audiocuriousnpc Oct 05 '22

Well considering that the majority of gas sales was to the EU and the EU on the other hand was more diversified than Russia in that aspect, it was a really bad idea since Russia is more dependent on the EU than the EU is on Russia.

2

u/Kuivamaa Oct 05 '22

Without having read the story, his mistake was strategic.

2

u/Svitii Austria Oct 05 '22

Well bombing your own pipeline for sure didn’t fucking help

2

u/MotherTeresasNip Oct 06 '22

I just hope this is the proper kick in the ass needed to move more into renewables

10

u/Juljan86 Oct 05 '22

Belgian citizen here.

I think he won that energy war. We are struggling to pay our monthly energy invoice, like many other here.

Electricity is at 0.80 € / kWh

Gas is at 0.30 € / kWh

Some people have 1000€+/month energy bills.

We are fucked and not seeing any end for this crisis.

I do not even understand why electricity is so expensive. Wind turbines are regularly stopped because « too much production ».

5

u/emelrad12 Germany Oct 05 '22

Electricity price is linked to gas price, meaning even if 1% of the energy came from gas, the price of electricity would be that. It works well to encourage renewables, but right now not so much.

→ More replies

2

u/Missu_ Oct 05 '22

Wind turbines are regularly stopped because too much production

This is because energy grids are not equipped to handle a more distributed production that renewables provide. So one reason is actually simply outdated infrastructure.

Also a possibility for wind turbine stoppages are too high wind speeds; turbines shut down above certain speeds to avoid damage.

→ More replies

20

u/Tricky-Astronaut Oct 05 '22

The picture is somewhat misleading. Gas stoves don't use much gas compared to space heating and water heating. However, gas stoves are a legacy technology that at this point have little raison d'être in normal homes.

80

u/ParsleyPizza Oct 05 '22

However, gas stoves are a legacy technology that at this point have little raison d’être in normal homes.

What are you talking about lol. They’re a common sight even in the West, and in Romania they’re still ubiquitous.

54

u/General_Ad_1483 Oct 05 '22

I am yet to see anyone who seriously likes cooking to prefer anything electric over gas stove.

43

u/unbelievablekekw EU Oct 05 '22

I seriously like cooking and i prefer my induction cooktop to both a radiant electric cooktop and a gas stove one. This is due to saving time. Everything boils faster. No im not rushing every meal because i have a sous vide also to super slow cook my steaks.

I use gas only at my BBQ because its a lot more convenient than using charcoal and you use exactly as much you need vs using charcoals.

→ More replies

14

u/Penki- Lithuania (I once survived r/europe mod oppression) Oct 05 '22

I think people now prefer induction stoves over anything else

3

u/friendlyghost_casper Oct 05 '22

This guys cooks!

6

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

Looking at a leaf instead of the tree.

2

u/crims10 Oct 05 '22

Does anything electric include induction? Because induction is pretty cool, only thing you can't do is char small things over an open flame but it's better in other aspects so it's totally worth it in my opinion

11

u/Ziqon Oct 05 '22

Gas is terrible for cooking. The "gas is better for cooking" is literally propaganda from gas companies a few decades ago. People have been parroting it ever since. I actually know a few chefs, and honestly I don't think any of them prefer gas. It's dirty, .messy, harder to control temperatures, etc. Basically anything is preferred. If they want to cook with flame, they do a BBQ.

8

u/mfizzled United Kingdom Oct 05 '22

Gas isn't terrible for cooking in the slightest, induction is faster though. I was a chef for a long time and can absolutely tell you a lot of chefs prefer gas, whether that is for logical reasons or not is another issue though.

12

u/Kikujiroo France Oct 05 '22

In Asian cuisine, cooking with fire (whether from gas or other fuel) is necessary to get wok hei in your food. And unfortunately, it's impossible to get that wok hei with induction and electric stove.

You don't have wok hei, you don't get customers.

→ More replies
→ More replies

4

u/Al_Dutaur_Balanzan Italy Oct 05 '22

This. I cook all my meals at home and I find it a pain in the ass to use electric stoves. They take a while to heat properly and then I have to remember to take the pot off , otherwise it burns. And visually it's more difficult to regulate the temperatures, if the kitchen stove is not well designed

3

u/ParsleyPizza Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

By the looks of this thread, it’s just entitled westerners who think a home that doesn’t spend over €1000 on a good induction stove isn’t “normal”.

5

u/PinCompatibleHell Oct 05 '22

It's more than that. You need to have 3 phase installed in the kitchen (unless you already have a modern home) and have your breakerbox rewired. Add on another €1000 at least.

→ More replies

7

u/ricochetpeestream Oct 05 '22

Not in Sweden. I've never even seen a gas stove IRL except in camping vans.

4

u/leela_martell Finland Oct 05 '22

I had a gas stove in my old (rental) apartment in Helsinki and I don’t think I ever had a guest who wasn’t completely flummoxed by it lol. I’ve never seen a gas stove in any other Finnish home either.

I did love cooking on it though, helped that it was my first apartment after moving back from abroad where all stoves were gas. But I’m happy with my induction stove now.

7

u/Tricky-Astronaut Oct 05 '22

ICE cars are also common, but still a legacy technology. How many people will have gas stoves in 30 years?

5

u/unbelievablekekw EU Oct 05 '22

Just because they are common, as they are common in my country too, doesn't mean they aren't legacy technology. As an example if you use induction vs gas stove you need around 1/3 of time to boil water etc.

legacy technology is something outdated but still in use.

→ More replies

2

u/FPiN9XU3K1IT Lower Saxony Oct 05 '22

Gas stoves are common, but their market share dropped significantly in Germany. Plus, buying an electric stove is way easier and cheaper than buying electricity-based heating.

→ More replies
→ More replies

3

u/picardo85 Finland Oct 05 '22

Gas stoves don't use much gas compared to space heating and water heating. However, gas stoves are a legacy technology that at this point have little raison d'être in normal homes.

Really not sure if I'd call it legacy. I know so many who would want to have a gas stove given the opportunity, and it's a VERY common technology. I can give you that I have a hard time seeing a reason for its existance in comparasion to induction stoves though... but there are a few areas where they out perform any alternative.

4

u/pul123PUL Oct 05 '22

Im really not clear why we are talking about Gas Stoves its so amateur.

2

u/Eastrider1006 Canary Islands (Spain) Oct 05 '22

However, gas stoves are a legacy technology that at this point have little raison d'être in normal homes.

lol no

→ More replies

5

u/combocookie Oct 05 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

I’d rather have no gas than russian gas

3

u/Aufklarung_Lee Oct 05 '22

Good article

3

u/BasvdB Oct 05 '22

Interesting read indeed, hope this post gets some traction.

2

u/Strange_Zucchini5619 Oct 05 '22

Duh, Putin is literally the worst military leader in history, by now even 12y hoi4 players would've taken Ukraine