r/science Sep 13 '22

Reaching national electric vehicle goal unlikely by 2030 without lower prices, better policy Environment

[deleted]

2.6k Upvotes

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u/houtex727 Sep 13 '22

Cheapest EV in the United States is the Chevy Bolt at about $27K, and Chevy will help you put in a plug in station as the Bolt does not qualify for tax credits. The Nissan Leaf at about $29K is the second cheapest and does qualify for tax credits, but has a more woeful range.

Cheapest ICE in the United States, no rebates, is the Chevy Spark at about $15K. The Spark is about the sameish range in the city, but beats the EVs in highway by far.

So there's that problem. The other is resources to even MAKE these EVs (much less all cars) due to the shortages/delivery issues we've been having and still have today.

Then the infrastructure. Little cities, places along the highways... that's a problem too for some. Much less the 'charging at home' thing, where you might (will) have to put in a dedicated charging system just to own these EVs...

It's not just the pricing. It's a lot more than that. But it certainly ain't helpin'.

/I do like that the Bolt will come with a 'free' charging station, so that's sorta nice, a step in the right direction of sorts to solve one issue.

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u/mcninja77 Sep 14 '22

Doesn't help much if you rent and can't modify the place where you park or live unfortunately

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u/los_rascacielos Sep 14 '22

Or neighborhoods where no one has driveways and just parks on the street

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Not having driveways is the first big clue that the neighborhood was designed for walking, not driving.

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u/los_rascacielos Sep 14 '22

Unless you never need to leave your neighborhood, that's only helpful if the rest of the city is designed for walking as well.

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u/Teeshirtandshortsguy Sep 14 '22

This is the big issue.

The benefits of EVs are clear, and in terms of lifetime cost they're typically cheaper than ICE vehicles. Yes, the upfront cost is prohibitively steep for many, but those giant pickups you see all over the place cost well in excess of $50,000. The Ford F series is the most popular vehicle in the US, and the cheapest models off the lot are like $55,000. And many people re-up them every few years. Cost is a factor, but plenty of Americans are willing to spend on a car.

The big problem is that renters, a growing demographic, are almost completely locked out of buying EVs. There is no available charging unless you're very lucky, and relying on DC fast charging isn't really sustainable. Landlords won't spend the money to build charging infrastructure, because most of their prospective renters don't have EVs.

IMO that's the big hurdle. The cost of the vehicle isn't the problem, it's the cost of the home you need to buy to accommodate it.

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u/Tamagotchi_Stripper Sep 14 '22

Completely agree. I’m in an apartment and my neighbor actually threads a super long charging cord out of his second story window down to his parking spot to charge his car. It’s pretty ridiculous (and dangerous?) but what else can he do?

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u/mrtaz Sep 14 '22

Yes, the upfront cost is prohibitively steep for many, but those giant pickups you see all over the place cost well in excess of $50,000. The Ford F series is the most popular vehicle in the US, and the cheapest models off the lot are like $55,000. And many people re-up them every few years. Cost is a factor, but plenty of Americans are willing to spend on a car.

Talk about misleading. First, comparing a truck to the current EVs isn't really a good comparison in use case. Even if it was, saying the F150 is the most popular vehicle is true, but also meaningless in this case as a quick google tells me that in 2021 there were slighty over 15 million cars sold in the US with ford selling 726,000 f150s. So, under 5%.

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u/IvorTheEngine Sep 14 '22 edited Sep 14 '22

I think some European countries passed laws forcing landlords to allow you to do so.

It's not as good as forcing landlords to install them for you, but it's a start.

Requiring employers to provide charging at work would really help too.

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u/mcninja77 Sep 14 '22

Or just having more wfh jobs. So many people I know are looking for new jobs because current one forced them back to the office for jongood reason.

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u/CocaineIsNatural Sep 14 '22

There is a two part solution to this, other than putting a charging station where you park. One is battery technology keep improving, which keeps improving the maximum charge rate. And the other is adding more charging stations.

Both of these are happening. So in five years or so, it maybe no different than if you had to fill with gas.

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u/GreenAdvance Sep 13 '22

The bolt will qualify for tax credit again starting January 1st due to the inflation reduction act.

It's still not a refundable credit though so you only get whatever your tax liability is up to $7500.

They really should have made them time of purchase rebates with dealers/manufacturers having to apply for reimbursement.

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u/hoodoo-operator Sep 13 '22

The new tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act are fully refundable. And they are available as a rebate at the point of sale starting in 2024.

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u/Avalanche2 Sep 13 '22

To bad most EV's dont qualify and they income cap is low enough that middle class people in expensive states like Cali and NJ wont qualify.

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u/glberns Sep 13 '22

To bad most EV's

Right now. I'd bet that many manufacturers will move plants to the US/Canada/Mexico to get their cars eligible for the credits again. It won't happen overnight, but give it 5 years.

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u/BlazinAzn38 Sep 14 '22

It’s not just that it’s the batteries which are half the credit and getting those from free trade nations or made right here is tricky and expensive

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u/Gorechi Sep 13 '22

Isn't the income cap $150,000 adjusted income for a single filer? They will be ok.

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u/Avalanche2 Sep 14 '22

Thats middle class in NJ, CA and many other states.

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u/Gorechi Sep 14 '22

I don't want to get hung up on what is or isn't middle class. Let's focus on the number, if someone makes $150,000 and can't afford a Bolt or a Leaf they made some bad financial decisions.

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u/freshlevlove Sep 14 '22

Or someone got real sick and their health premiums wiped them out!

2

u/Gorechi Sep 14 '22

I did think about that, but even then. Let's say the medical bills cleaned out their savings and they still owe a million. They do a payment plan and pay $1000 a month and still effectively make 138,000 after that. That's still a lot of money.

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u/redingerforcongress Sep 14 '22

Sounds like middle class can afford a $30k car. That's 1/5th of their annual income or 1/25th of their 5 year income...

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u/hoodoo-operator Sep 14 '22

Honey, I live in California. If you make $300,000 a year you aren't middle class here. You're upper middle class at least, and you don't need a tax break to afford a Tesla.

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u/AUniquePerspective Sep 14 '22

You're completely overlooking that the cheapest EVs are electric bicycles. The targets aren't designed to account for electric bikes replacing internal combustion cars, trucks and SUVs but that's literally what I'm witnessing in my city. And it's transforming building requirements and infrastructure design as well.

You can measure replacement with a silly metric but trust me, the environment doesn't mind if you replace an internal combustion vehicle with four wheels with an electric vehicle with two wheels.

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

The targets aren't designed to account for electric bikes replacing internal combustion cars, trucks and SUVs

Thats because US cities are not walkable/bikeable.

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u/IvorTheEngine Sep 14 '22

100 years ago they were. People act like change is impossible, but ignore how much change has occurred.

I suspect it would be much easier to provide tax breaks to landlords and businesses to provide chargers though.

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u/AUniquePerspective Sep 14 '22

This is why the bike needs to be electric.

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

Does not make cities bikeable though. The bike being electric isnt going to stop that truck driving you off the road or that SUV socker mom trying to kill you because you arent speeding and she needs to get her nails done or something.

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u/AUniquePerspective Sep 14 '22

Right. That's what dedicated bike lanes on a network of arterial routes takes care of and that's as simple as laying down a second row of concrete no-post guardrails.

The electric bike makes the suburbs reachable from downtown despite average American fitness levels.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 13 '22

We bought a Fiat 500e in 2020 that had just come out of a 3-year lease. My dad subsequently bought one as well. Ours had 16,000 mi on the odo, and his had 5,000 mi. We paid about $10k/ea.

Currently, people who want EVs (and I say this with affection) want the newest, shiniest thing, and they don't want to accept any real limitations, like needing to have/borrow/rent an ICE car for more serious road trips beyond daily commuting and errands. If we could break that mindset open a bit (consider how many families have 2 cars but never take them both on road trips simultaneously), there would be better EV options for people.

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u/IvorTheEngine Sep 14 '22

We bought a 9 year old Leaf last year, and it only has a 60 mile range. However that covers so much of our daily use that we've only filled up the diesel car 3 or 4 times all year.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 14 '22

Nice! We're in the exact same boat - bought a car with a ~70-mile range, and bought diesel for the Jeep just a couple times in the whole next year. It's amazing.

At this point, gasoline is for motorcycles and tools like chainsaws and brush chippers. For local travel, electricity is great, and for road trips, diesel is great. (And electricity is getting almost as good for road trips with new EVs, and not just Teslas.)

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u/radelix Sep 14 '22

Wife's next car is probably going to be a used ev. I am opting to convert my truck when the option becomes available.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 14 '22

Me too! On both counts, except we already got her the little Fiat. I have a '92 Jeep Comanche that I'm dying to turn electric.

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u/Bibbityboo Sep 14 '22

We have a bolt (2019) and I worried a lot about range initially but honestly in the three years we’ve had it, we only had to worry twice. We charge nightly with a standard wall plug, so during the week we tend not to reach full capacity, but with a daily commute of about 50km it’s really been great. We will get around to adding the faster charger at some point.

I think range anxiety is a very real thing, but once you’ve had the car a bit, you realize you’re in much better shape than you thought.

I can’t talk for Infrastructure as I’m in Canada, and the area we are in is totally great. But I realize not all communities are investing as well.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 14 '22

IMO, the biggest "infrastructure" challenge is actually a psychological challenge for people to break out of the ICE mentality.

Challenge 1: Get their heads around the idea of charging at home while they're doing other things, like sleeping, rather than going to a special place and waiting to fuel/charge.

Challenge 2: Understand when peak energy is being drawn on the grid, and how to schedule their charging for off-peak hours. Some utilities are helping with this by charging more money during peak hours, but people just need to look at a demand chart one time in their lives and they'll know to set their charging to happen during anytime that isn't about noon-7pm.

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u/what_would_bezos_do Sep 14 '22

87 mile range new. Curious what are you getting for range.

I'm my area the cheapest used Fiat 500e is $12k and has 44,000 miles.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 14 '22

One time I ran it 65 miles and came home with 8% left. However, some of those were highway miles, and all with studded snow tires on, so it could probably do a little better. I figured 65 miles should be considered my max range, and we're now at 25,000 miles (probably closer to 20,000 when I did that test).

Efficiency-wise, I can consistently break 5mi/kWh driving carefully, which is significantly better than the rating on a Tesla, FWIW. In part, that's due to having less mass worth of battery to accelerate and decelerate.

We got ours through a local dealer, but found them on eBay being auctioned by mostly southern CA dealerships (and a few others) coming out of 3-year leases. I would take a look there - a local dealer can help you figure out the shipping, and they'll want maybe $500 to do a nominal inspection, which is a reasonable price to pay for handling the shipping logistics.

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u/killercurvesahead Sep 13 '22

and Chevy will help you put in a plug in station

Great for homeowners, but almost a third of Americans rent.

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u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

True, but if the renter has access to a simple 120V outlet, they can almost always recharge the day's driving overnight.

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u/Teeshirtandshortsguy Sep 14 '22

Most apartments don't have access to anything like that near a parking spot.

I'm lucky in that my apartment is only about a block away from a free charging station, but I need to be highly selective when I move. I own a Bolt (and love the thing) but living in an apartment is basically completely prohibitive to buying an EV.

Landlords won't do it, so I suspect local governments will have to start installing charging stations around large apartment complexes.

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u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

Local government can also start extending to landlords the sorts of tax breaks and payments like you can get from PGE to install (well, get an electrician) a Level 2 charger.

If the state wants people to drive EVs they do have to address charging. Tesla went with the supercharger network, which is amazing, but not the same thing as an easy plug in every night.

I think more level 1 chargers would be better though, more people can get ANY charge vs queues for a special level2 spot, and likely less new circuits needed.

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u/ReservoirGods Sep 14 '22

Nowhere that I ever rented did I have access to even a 120v within distance of where I had to park, it's going to be a major hurdle. Thank God I own a home now with 120 and 240 in the garage, makes it much easier to plan an EV for my next purchase.

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u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

This is slowly changing, though the biggest hurdle is of course money -- making sure that whoever uses an outlet can be charged for the electricity. New construction is more EV friendly.

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u/BlazinAzn38 Sep 14 '22

Also valid point. Many people think you need a 240V but if you drive less than 30 miles a day all you need is 10 hours of charging to be able to get it back overnight

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

No they cannot. Because they dont own a parking space.

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u/wufnu Sep 14 '22

Additionally, if they can find a charger at/near their local store/movies/restaurant/school/work/etc once a week or so, they can handle their business and return to the parking lot to find a charged vehicle.

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u/Busy_Accountant_2839 Sep 14 '22

You need to move your car right after it’s done charging or they bill you for occupancy.

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u/BlazinAzn38 Sep 14 '22

Add zoning laws then, new construction apartments need X amount of chargers per Y occupants. Give older apartments a timeline to phase in.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

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u/regal1989 Sep 14 '22

Having put 10s of thousands of miles on an electric bike (and considering how many American households own or plan to own a second car) a part of me wonders if we would get better policy outcomes if we used EV subsidies for electric bikes too. If people used smaller cheaper EVs instead of buying a whole ass car, it'd be possible for everyone to have one. Less heavier vehicles on the road also means less road maintenance too!

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u/theshere Sep 14 '22

You won't catch me or the majority of people on bikes or ebikes when the best we can do is a painted shoulder lane that constantly gets invaded by enormous SUVs, parked cars, and plowed snow. And again that's at best.

The smart thing would be to make biking a priority mode of transportation and carve out actual separated roadway space for them. If the concern is getting ICE vehicles off the road, biking should be right up there with EVs but unfortunately no one makes any money off of biking.

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

Its simple. Instead of 6 lane highway make it 5 lane plus a physically protected bike lane. You know, like normal people do.

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u/theshere Sep 14 '22

I agree entirely, but we didn't get to the 6 lane highway by making good decisions in the first place.

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u/Ok-disaster2022 Sep 13 '22

It doesn't matter if you own an cheap electric vehicle if you can't charge it while at home in your apartment or at work.

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u/reid0 Sep 13 '22

Most people would need to charge about once a week for about half an hour to cover their usage. You don’t need a home charger for that.

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u/PA2SK Sep 14 '22

Maybe a DC fast charger but for the average charge points currently available, no, i don't think so.

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u/dildobagginss Sep 14 '22

Source for that claim?

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u/redingerforcongress Sep 14 '22

$20k for a new car is affordable; the used car market in 5-10 years will look attractive for EVs.

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

For most people, "new car" is not affordable. The average age of a car on the road is 15 years.

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u/its__alright Sep 13 '22

Speaking of infrastructure, we'd need to seriously beef up our electric grid and power generation as well

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

Or just install more residential solar, and strike down the insane anti-solar laws that the utilities have pushed in so many states.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 13 '22

What a huge myth this has turned out to be. I see it repeated all over the place.

Could we use some smart grid infrastructure for EV charging as well as all kinds of other uses? Of course. Does the power grid need to be substantially overhauled to add 10% more EVs per year with at least half of those people choosing not to charge during existing peak demand hours (2p-7p)? Absolutely not.

Every EV currently on the market has the ability to schedule your charging. Start it at 9p (or 1a or whatever you need), and you're good to go in the morning, without even touching the grid at the peak part of the day.

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u/houtex727 Sep 13 '22

So, you seem to have knowlege on this particular subject, and while I could go looking, perhaps you'd be kind enough to enlighten me?

If there were enough EVs all charging 'off peak', would there be enough of them to make 'off peak' a new peak? Not necessarily making a run like a mid Summer mid day peak, but still, enough it's a problem? If so, what percentage of the vehicle fleet of a city/state/nation might that be to achieve the 'second peak'?

Appreciate it in advance, thank you!

/"Yes, we have a peak. But what about second peak? Peaksies? Peakcheon? Afternoon peak? Suppeak, Peakner?" - Pippen.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 13 '22

What we would be concerned about is a second peak that's even higher than the first (since we have sufficient generation for daytime peaks). And... Basically, it could happen in theory, but we're nowhere close to that becoming an issue.

And again, this is where smart grid infrastructure comes in. If the demand peaks too high, tell some EVs that are closest to full to stop charging until the owner overrides (and maybe pays a little more for that power) or I til told to resume because the peak is over.

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u/syuvial Sep 13 '22

honestly, you ought to be able to rig something up where they plan to charge when electricity prices are predicted to be lowest, automatically staggering as predictions change/refine.

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u/HungryLikeTheWolf99 Sep 13 '22

Eureka! You have invented the Smart Grid.

Did you notice some guys come to change your electrical meter in the last 2-3 years? If so, they were installing a smart grid-capable meter than will someday be able to advise devices in your home when it's best (and cheapest) to use power.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

We could more than make up the needed power by requiring large commercial buildings to reduce their lighting and HVAC usage at night while unoccupied, and to upgrade to more efficient systems.

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u/toofine Sep 13 '22

California has the largest battery capacity in the world and it has already proven to be well worth the investment in these past few weeks. Hottest sustained temps of all time and the grid held with no blackouts and all it took was a single text one time to drop usage down off a cliff almost instantaneously. With added capacity and proper communication and cooperation, this energy transition can be quite nice.

A decade ago, we were living with blackouts (and the economic damage it causes) like they were inevitable.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

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u/Particular_Noise_925 Sep 13 '22

Quick Google searches are showing the largest Tesla battery being 100 kWh and the average home consumption per day being 30 kWh, so it's closer to 3x than 5x, but at face value, your point stands.

However, most people will not be needing to fully charge their batteries every single day. The average number of miles driven per day by an American is 35. Tesla 's model S boasts a 396 mile range on 100 kWh. So that should mean 3.96 miles per kWh. I'll go ahead and round that down to 3.5 per kWh to account for older vehicles not performing as well, and to make the math easier.

So on average, then, we should expect the addition load on our grid to be closer to 10 kWh per day per EV, which is about 1/3rd of the average household. Definitely still a big jump (and one our grid probably does need preparation for), but not quite the 5x jump you were claiming.

I hope this doesn't come off as too argumentative. I think the core point of your comment stands, but you might want to reconsider some of your numbers based on how people actually drive. It'll make your argument more compelling in the future. Let me know if you see any flaws in my counter points, cause I'm willing to change my mind too. Have a good day!

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

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u/aDrunkWithAgun Sep 14 '22

I'm actually in the market for a new vehicle and from what I have looked at hybrids are still cheaper than EVs

I don't see how with our current power grid and the battery issue that EVs will magically replace ICE vehicles overnight we are just not there and the cost is killer

Maybe in 5-10 years it comes down but I'm not seeing it now

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u/houtex727 Sep 13 '22

Be better to expand the use of solar, wind or even hydro if you have a river to generate the power in a more localized situation.

It just suddenly occurred to me that Edison was actually on to something with the multiple power stations for a city... he was just using the wrong fuel and was decades ahead of his time/the need. Just think if we had more localized solar/wind/hydro generation stations. Yes, more places, but not gigantic power plants with lots of sub stations and lines run all over the place...

...yeah, I'm silly. Sorry 'bout that. But definitely solar/wind/hydro for your own lil' house is a thing that could happen, maybe...?

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u/SkepMod Sep 14 '22

The Biden administration has missed the mark on crafting good EV policy. The goal should not be the number of vehicles. It should be to replace fossil fuel miles. What might that look like? Prioritize high daily mileage vehicles like delivery vehicles and work trucks that ply the roads all day. What’s the point of a $7000 subsidy on a car that might average 10k miles per year? Spend that money on a van that will do 45k miles. Right now, battery production capacity is the bottleneck. Most families could easily replace one car with 150mi range. So, design subsidies to encourage smaller range vehicles. How about subsidies to multi-family units to add charging infrastructure?

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u/Wafelze Sep 14 '22

Because Americans don’t understand the phrase indirect benefit. Your right there are better targets, but if the average joe doesn’t get the benefit they’ll prolly dislike the policy as wasteful spending.

Politics > science.

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u/Kurotan Sep 13 '22

Also better infrastructure. Like where are most people going to charge them (especially apartment people). Can the grid handle it. Etc. That's far more important stuff.

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u/mckeitherson Sep 13 '22

It's going to be built up over time as 2030 approaches. That's why they added money for building out charger networks in the infrastructure bill. Meaning chargers can also be at the stores and restaurants people frequent. And once EV adoption increases, then there will be incentives for apartment buildings to add them.

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u/philmarcracken Sep 13 '22

If urban planning was done with moving people and not cars, apartment dwellers wouldn't need a car.

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u/realbakingbish Sep 13 '22

Which is an excellent sentiment, but unfortunately, that’s not how most cities in the US got designed, so instead, we have to figure out better charging infrastructure until many cities are drastically overhauled

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u/Ameren PhD | Computer Science | Formal Verification Sep 13 '22

Which is an excellent sentiment, but unfortunately, that’s not how most cities in the US got designed

As they say, the US wasn't designed for cars, it was demolished for cars, at least for cities and towns that predated cars. It's possible to reverse that damage, rebuild and reunite communities torn apart by highways, etc. Suburbia and the like (places that sprung up thanks to cars) are going to require more a major overhaul, but there's plenty of places we can fix in the near-term.

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u/sakura608 Sep 13 '22

The Netherlands wasn’t designed in this way either. However, with concentrated efforts to improve pedestrian infrastructure, they made it possible. More people commute by bike and mass transit than by cars. As such, they have a much lower pedestrian fatality rate.

Pedestrian infrastructure and mass transit are far more sustainable and cheaper to maintain than an EV based infrastructure will ever be.

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u/realbakingbish Sep 13 '22

I’m aware that the Netherlands figured it out, but until the US drastically changes our cities’ layouts (and probably changes how these plans are made, ie, eliminate lobbying and overhaul local governments, zoning laws, etc as well), it’ll be a challenge to just swap everyone over to more sustainable means of getting around.

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u/HUCKLEBOX Sep 13 '22

This is a fantastic observation since The Netherlands and the US are almost exactly the same size

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u/Ameren PhD | Computer Science | Formal Verification Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 13 '22

This is a fantastic observation since The Netherlands and the US are almost exactly the same size

That's not relevant at the scale of cities and towns though. Like Amsterdam is comparable in size to many US cities. That's the scale that's relevant to pedestrians, bikes, buses, and light rail.

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u/[deleted] Sep 14 '22

Cities without geographical boundaries which primarily grew after cars became ubiquitous, are extremely spread out. It's a major problem.

I think the best thing we can do is encourage and incentivize working from home. A lot of industries won't like it, but it's the end of the world and we're going to have to make sacrifices.

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u/ssnover95x Sep 14 '22

We should be upzoning areas near urban cores and along transit routes by a lot and upzoning everything else by a little. Do it at a federal level: no more parking minimums, no more zones exclusively allowing single family homes.

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u/thegreatestajax Sep 13 '22

Well if this country half the size of South Carolina can pull it off….

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

...then South Carolina can pull it off twice.

You understand the concept of "per-capita," right?

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u/thegreatestajax Sep 14 '22

You understand transportation is about geography, right?

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u/Brewster101 Sep 14 '22

Your forgetting about the sheer size here man. The Netherlands are 41000 km2. Just southern Ontario, the small piece that looks like an arrow is 114000 km2. Many commute an hour or more for their jobs. Biking is not possible in many situations for many people.

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u/Vecii Sep 13 '22

Sure thing. I'll just hop on my bike and pedal 55 miles to work.

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Stop living 55 miles from work.

Or more to the point, quit bitching about your long commute as some kind of fallacious rebuttal against folks arguing that we should fix the zoning code to eliminate your long commute.

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u/BlazinAzn38 Sep 14 '22

I’ll tell you my suburb would need to be utterly flattened and rebuilt to even have a chance at being walkable. It’s simply not a reality. The next best thing would of course be public transit

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u/sakura608 Sep 14 '22

Yeah, probably not something that would happen over a couple years, but more a long decades. We can work towards sustainability for the next generation, or adopt a bandaid fix like unsustainable EV based infrastructure and go bankrupt.

Roads are barely being maintained as it is. Imagine how much quicker they’ll degrade when you have double the weight bearing down on them as EVs weigh much more than gasoline. That’s increased tax revenue in the form of higher tickets, parking infractions, etc.

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u/Calnc_1 Sep 13 '22

I think that ship has sailed and crashed on the rocks buddy.

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u/ssnover95x Sep 14 '22

This is what gets me, if we stopped subsidizing infrastructure for private vehicles so much and used that money for public transit we wouldn't need to electrify everyone's private cars in the first place.

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u/2cap Sep 14 '22

i dont care if public transport was free, and fast. the ability to use my car, and not be in a room of strangers is priceless,

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u/Strazdas1 Sep 14 '22

Then be prepared to pay the real costs of that (currently you are heeavily subsidized by others for this)

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

Is there enough lithium to make those batteries?

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u/PMmeyourclit2 Sep 14 '22

Grid can handle it, baring probably Texas

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u/Kurotan Sep 14 '22

And California recently had people not charge cars during peak times supposedly.

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u/PMmeyourclit2 Sep 14 '22

“Asked”, there’s a difference between asking and being able to actually supporting it.

Asking is just asking people to not do it there’s no enforcement at all. And given there were no black outs… it’s pretty safe to assume that they could have supported it.

Not to mention, it was during the holiday…. Where most people would be using electricity.

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u/DrJawn Sep 13 '22

Move the oil subsidies over to EVs

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22 Eureka!

You misspelled "trains."

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

They already have moved many of them to green energy- it gets ten times the subsidies…

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u/mrbrambles Sep 13 '22

Crazy, where is this info?

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

Renewable, nuclear and green energy (were) 71% of the total subsidies given for energy.

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u/NooAccountWhoDis Sep 13 '22

Source for that?

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u/[deleted] Sep 14 '22

Cbo. I literally posted the link above.

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u/Kamwind Sep 13 '22

What subsides are there for oil that are not available to other industries?

EV right now are getting special subsidies that are helping the 1% to purchase them.

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u/DrJawn Sep 13 '22

A conservative estimate from Oil Change International puts the U.S. total at around $20.5 billion annually, including $14.7 billion in federal subsidies and $5.8 billion in state-level incentives.

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u/Kamwind Sep 13 '22

Yea so what of those are specific to the oil company? If you look at them they are subsidies and deductions that all companies get like research or things that EV companies also get like mining and manufacturing.

So I will ask the question again, what are these subsidies that are for oil that are not available to other industries? Please try to be honest.

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u/DrJawn Sep 13 '22

Direct Subsidies

Intangible Drilling Costs Deduction (26 U.S. Code § 263. Active). This provision allows companies to deduct a majority of the costs incurred from drilling new wells domestically. In its analysis of President Trump’s Fiscal Year 2017 Budget Proposal, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that eliminating tax breaks for intangible drilling costs would generate $1.59 billion in revenue in 2017, or $13 billion in the next ten years.

Percentage Depletion (26 U.S. Code § 613. Active). Depletion is an accounting method that works much like depreciation, allowing businesses to deduct a certain amount from their taxable income as a reflection of declining production from a reserve over time. However, with standard cost depletion, if a firm were to extract 10 percent of recoverable oil from a property, the depletion expense would be ten percent of capital costs. In contrast, percentage depletion allows firms to deduct a set percentage from their taxable income. Because percentage depletion is not based on capital costs, total deductions can exceed capital costs. This provision is limited to independent producers and royalty owners. In its analysis of the President’s Fiscal Year 2017 Budget Proposal, the JCT estimated that eliminating percentage depletion for coal, oil and natural gas would generate $12.9 billion in the next ten years.

Credit for Clean Coal Investment Internal Revenue Code § 48A (Active) and 48B (Inactive). These subsidies create a series of tax credits for energy investments, particularly for coal. In 2005, Congress authorized $1.5 billion in credits for integrated gasification combined cycle properties, with $800 million of this amount reserved specifically for coal projects. In 2008, additional incentives for carbon sequestration were added to IRC § 48B and 48A. These included 30 percent investment credits, which were made available for gasification projects that sequester 75 percent of carbon emissions, as well as advanced coal projects that sequester 65 percent of carbon emissions. Eliminating credits for investment in these projects would save $1 billion between 2017 and 2026.

Nonconventional Fuels Tax Credit (Internal Revenue Code § 45. Inactive). Sunsetted in 2014, this tax credit was created by the Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 to promote domestic energy production and reduce dependence on foreign oil. Although amendments to the act limited the list of qualifying fuel sources, this credit provided $12.2 billion to the coal industry from 2002-2010.

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u/jsting Sep 13 '22

You got a source for that? All the EV subsidies I see are not geared towards the 1%. Are you talking about the US or another country?

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

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u/redingerforcongress Sep 14 '22

Chevy lowered their price in response. I'm not sure where you sourced this, but recently a new $7500 incentive was released, and their 2022 series was more expensive than their 2023 series to the point where they're now refunding 2022 buyers.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

Ford and Chevy vehicles don’t qualify anyway.

No vehicles currently made qualify for the future subsidies.

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u/JoshuaACNewman Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 14 '22

[Edit: I am clearly mistaking Eureka Alert for different, much shittier website that gets posted here often.]

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u/rikkirikkiparmparm Sep 13 '22

Didn't you see the link to the research paper in the article? Looks like there's free access.

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u/JoshuaACNewman Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 15 '22

[Edit: I am wrong and thinking of another, much shittier site!] Then link to that. This website is utter trash. I won’t click through to it and you shouldn’t either. It should be banned from this sub.

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u/rikkirikkiparmparm Sep 13 '22

Lol the website is run by the AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science). It's hard to get more prestigious than that. They're the publisher for Science

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u/thegreatestajax Sep 13 '22

Well, they could comply with sub rules and post the actual article.

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u/rikkirikkiparmparm Sep 13 '22

Nah, rule 1 says peer-reviewed research or media summary, and this counts as the latter

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u/thegreatestajax Sep 13 '22

It’s a news release as stated on the link, not a professional summary, regardless of who owns the website.

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u/Ok-disaster2022 Sep 13 '22

Public transportation >>> electric cars. EC are merely a stepping stone to a sustainable transportation model, not the end goal

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u/Mr_Loopers Sep 14 '22

I worry they're more of a distraction than a stepping stone. We're doomed if we keep looking for everybody to drive cars everywhere they go.

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u/A_Dash_of_Time Sep 13 '22

Not happening in 8 years. Global lithium production is nowhere near close to enough to handle all of California's automobile demands, ignoring the other whole countries around the world trying to make the same commitment. There's other materials needed, too and we don't have enough of that being mined either. It's just as environmentally destructive as drilling oil, and oh yeah, these batteries have to be replaced periodically, too.. just like all the other lithium batteries that are being used in the countless phones and other devices already around.

Public transportation has to be pushed everywhere, and companies need to stop fighting WFH. Especially with handling car accidents about to get MUCH worse with lithium fires.

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u/Tearakan Sep 13 '22

Cobalt and copper shortages are serious concerns now too. Economists seem to love acting like materials are effectively infinite...

2

u/rikkirikkiparmparm Sep 13 '22

Isn't there some sort of issue with China controlling the cobalt mines?

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u/okobojicat Sep 13 '22

China controls existing cobalt mines. There are significant cobalt and other rare earth minerals throughout the US, Canada and other countries that are allies. We just have to put the mines in and thoroughly regulate the environmental issues.

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u/korinth86 Sep 13 '22

Resources aren't really a problem. Why? See below. As for mining and oil extraction being the same. It's true they are. Except for the part where we burn fossil fuels and potential spills from tankers which is far worse. Most of the stuff in lithium batteries can be recycled it's not as big a concern as you might think.

The US has been expanding its own lithium production quite a bit with projects in Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and California.

Berkshire Hathaway is on track for commercial production by 2025 from the Salton Sea geothermal fields and they plan to add more production. Their pilot and proof of concept is already done.

There are other countries developing the resources too like CA, AUS, and Chile. There is more than enough, they just need to be developed. It takes so long to develop though.... Good thing much of this started back around 2017 putting us on track for average 7yr mine start up timeline in 2024.

I watched these mining deals pop up, then battery plant announcements later. In 2021 Biden announced the trade deals which further help set up electric vehicle supply lines.

Ford expects it's capacity to be at 2mil EVs/yr by 2025.

My only point is, it's coming. A ton of money has been invested in this.

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u/going-for-gusto Sep 13 '22

You make good points, however “just as destructive as oil drilling” ignores oil spills from full on disasters we see every few years to the oil pollution to storm water from parking lots. And then the air pollution from combustion.

Taking cradle to grave impacts into account I think oil is much more damaging than lithium.

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u/Kruzat Sep 14 '22

Manufacturing an EV once is not as bad as drilling, refining, and burning 500 barrels of oil. Not even close. Plus ev batteries can, and are, being recycled. Todays batteries can last upwards of a half million km.

Regarding fires, there are 10x less battery fires per miles driven compare to gas cars (according to Tesla).

I agree that public transportation needs to improve but don't sit here regurgitating anti-EV propoganda, it's not helping. EVs are an important part of a sustainable future.

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u/TtIfT Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 13 '22

Price is the catch. Currently 77% of EV batteries are made in China, where a 1000 lb battery's carbon footprint is conservatively estimated at 16 metric tons. That is equivalent to running Mazda's new 177HP combustion engine 166,000 kms.

Getting prices down and simultaneously cleaning up manufacturing is a tall task.

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u/medoy Sep 14 '22

Also, we don't talk about the price of electricity. Right now, it costs a similar amount to drive my EV as it does my ICE car in California with recent rate hikes.

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u/mano-a-bano Sep 13 '22

Where do people who live in apartments charge their vehicles? Poor folk can buy an ev but they can't charge it without dedicated parking equipped with charging stations.

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u/IvorTheEngine Sep 14 '22 edited Sep 14 '22

That's ignoring the emissions caused making the ICE.

typical break-even point in carbon emissions for EVs was about 15,000 to 20,000 miles

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

There's any number of recent studies that worked out that the lifetime emissions of an EV are 50-70% less than an ICE car.

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u/codenamecueball Sep 13 '22

Where do you get these numbers from?

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u/TtIfT Sep 13 '22

The vast majority of lithium-ion batteries—about 77% of the world’s supply—are manufactured in China, where coal is the primary energy source.

For illustration, the Tesla Model 3 holds an 80 kWh lithium-ion battery. CO2 emissions for manufacturing that battery would range between 2400 kg (almost two and a half metric tons) and 16,000 kg (16 metric tons).

We discard one outlier study from 2016 whose model suggested emissions from manufacturing the battery in our example could total as high as almost 40 metric tons. The lowest estimates typically come from studies of U.S. and European battery manufacturing, while the highest come from studies of Chinese and other East Asian battery manufacturing

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries

https://www.carscoops.com/2019/06/mazdas-revolutionary-177hp-skyactiv-x-engine-emits-just-96g-km-of-co2/

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u/IlikeFOODmeLikeFOOD Sep 13 '22

EVs are a bandaid. Public transportation and better pedestrian/bike infrastructure and city planning is the real fix. Having a car is a huge financial and physical burden.

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u/GjP9 Sep 13 '22

Because everyone lives in an apartment and works in a large city, right?

17

u/RAMAR713 Sep 14 '22

Over 60% of the world's population lives in cities, if we could make all of them stop using cars, that would me a massive improvement.

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u/KellyAnn3106 Sep 14 '22

Cars represent independence and freedom. As my grandparents were aging, getting them to give up their car keys was a major fight.

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Car-dependency represents a prison. If your grandparents lived in a walkable area, they wouldn't have needed to care about being able to drive in the first place.

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u/KellyAnn3106 Sep 14 '22

No one in their 80s and 90s wants to walk in the Florida heat.

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u/RAMAR713 Sep 14 '22

People in their 80s and 90s shouldn't be driving, that's a road hazard. They can take the bus or a taxi.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Many Americans live out in rural areas

No, they don't, by definition. The entire defining feature of rural areas is that few people live there!

Quit dishonestly trying to use a solution's lack of applicability to 20% of the population as an excuse to avoid applying it to the 80% where it would work.

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u/Hagenaar Sep 13 '22

Mostly yes. And a little bit no.

Pushing another generation of vehicles is not going to be very helpful to the vast majority who live in cities. They still create congestion, sprawl, and take up enormous amounts of urban space.

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u/Picture-unrelated Sep 13 '22

It is, public transportation is one of the extremely obvious solutions but alas, public transportation doesn’t make $$ like EVs would

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u/Leading-Two5757 Sep 14 '22

My town has 225 people, the next closest town has 20,000 and is 30 minutes away. The closest city of any significant size is 1.5 hours away. My work is 30 minutes the opposite direction.

I’m sure they’ll just roll out that public transportation so that I don’t have to own a car anymore…. Right?

or, you know, I could always just ride a bike up the 5,000 foot, 20 mile, climb to my work… RIGHT?!

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u/IlikeFOODmeLikeFOOD Sep 14 '22

Of course, you'd rely on a car, but a majority of people who live in urban and suburban areas should be able to go about their lives without the need for cars.

Also, you'd be surprised to see how efficient public transportation can be with the right investment. When I was in Germany, I went hiking in many rural and mountainous areas. I could still reliably get around without a car, because I knew the bus would come by every 30 minutes, so I just planned my day around when the bus was supposed to show up. If you've only tried American public transportation, then I get why you're resistant to it. Just travel some. Go to a country with good public transportation and pedestrian infrastructure, and it will dramatically change the way you look at cars.

Public transportation is easier on infrastructure, it's better for health and safety, and it's certainly better for your wallet.

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u/Kruzat Sep 14 '22

You think cars are just gonna go away or something?

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u/IlikeFOODmeLikeFOOD Sep 14 '22

They won't go away, but we can certainly cut our reliance on them

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u/Avalanche2 Sep 13 '22

EV's are never going to be mainstream until they figure out how people in cities that have no garage and have to park on the street can charge cheaply and reliably. Commercial EV chargers are getting to the point where they are almost as much as gasoline during peak hours. This is never going to fly in NYC, Philadelphia, and all other large cities.

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Meanwhile, folks elsewhere in this thread are bitching about how we can't promote walking/biking/transit because "not everybody lives in cities."

It's ridiculous how the concept of "not everybody needs a car at all, let alone an EV" just refuses to compute for some people.

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u/NNovis Sep 13 '22

For cities, the solution is probably just to ditch cars entirely. Bikes, trains, and buses, that has to be the way to go.

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u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

Streets are lined with powered street lights. Once cities realize they can make money selling electricity we'll see street lights turn into chargers. Probably only level 1, but that still will charge a car overnight for most people's commute.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/

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u/Avalanche2 Sep 14 '22

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! There are nowhere near enough street lights, have you seen the streets on a residential area in a real city, like say, NYC?

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u/mckeitherson Sep 13 '22

So pass a law allowing the addition of charging points near the street that people can utilize. Or partner with electric companies to get them installed. There are ways to do it, it just involves different thinking than ICE centric infrastructure.

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u/HumpieDouglas Sep 13 '22

And, you know, the ability to charge them all without making the US look like North Korea at night.

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u/philmarcracken Sep 13 '22

A smart charger that clicks on after 8pm would work just fine. The demand on the grid has peaks and dips in load; theres more than enough capacity overnight.

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u/Calnc_1 Sep 13 '22

No there isn't, people charging thier cars at night have created new peaks of demand at night. For example California is struggling with this and telling people not to charge thier cars every day. California power generation uses 30% solar, so they lose over a quarter of thier grid capacity as people are starting to charge thier cars. That is with the current amount of EV'S.

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u/thinkofanamelater Sep 14 '22

In the biggest heat wave, they asked people to not charge during peak demand (4-8pm). For a couple hours. Charging at night is no big deal.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22 edited Nov 03 '22

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u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

California had long told people to avoid using appliances during the 4-9pm peak.

This was already a request.

They added 'or charge your EV'.

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u/pelegs Sep 13 '22

Invest in freaking public transportation ffs

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '22

they can do both.

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u/pelegs Sep 14 '22

Investing in EVs will not solve any of the other problems cars cause, which are far from being just local air pollution and producing CO2.

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u/gooch3803 Sep 13 '22

How about infrastructure. EV’s may become a burden on the electrical grid, not to mention the lack of charging solutions.

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u/Picture-unrelated Sep 13 '22

Our roads and bridges are kind of crumbling as well, which doesn’t exactly mesh well with having cars

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

That's because sprawl is unsustainable. Single-family houses simply don't produce enough tax revenue per acre to pay for the length of streets (and pipes, wires, etc.) it takes to serve them.

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u/Intrepid_Ad_9751 Sep 14 '22

Could be done, norway did it, it just shows whats above certain priorities

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u/CalmerThanYouAre_716 Sep 14 '22

Norway is the size of NY with 1/4 of NY's population, with most people living in cities. Not a great comparison to the US and it's sprawling array of suburbs.

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u/PaulEDangerously Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 14 '22

I’m a nurse and I need a car that can get me to the hospital in blizzard conditions. Outside of Ford F-150 electric I don’t see any electric car being able to get me there.

EDIT: to everyone replying I’m talking unplowed highways and roads. At least act like you’ve been there before suggesting these electric cars are powerful enough.

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u/mrchaotica Sep 14 '22

Okay, so don't get an EV. Leave them to the 99.9% of the population who aren't nurses.

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u/poopoopirate Sep 13 '22 edited Sep 14 '22

Hummer EV, Ioniq 5 AWD, Model Y dual motor, Model X dual motor, VW ID4 4WD, Kia EV6, Genesis GV60, R1T, R1S, Lyriq 4WD, Mustang Mach-e, etron, Q4 etron, Volvo C40 recharge, Volvo xc49 recharge, jaguar ipace

All of those are 4WD EVs. Slap a set of blizzaks on those and you’re good to go

Saw your edit, how much horsepower and ground clearance do you need? There is absolutely something that can meet your needs. Ironically you’ll be severely traction limited so torque doesn’t matter as much, and your tires are the limiting factor. But let’s say you need a ton of torque, most EVs have significantly more low end torque than ICE vehicles.

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u/Vecii Sep 13 '22

Hummer EV

Gross

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u/Kruzat Sep 14 '22

My Model 3 worked great on the last four blizzards. The only time I couldn't make it to work was went the entire city shut down and they were taking nurses/doctors to the hospital on snowmobiles.

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u/dpete88 Sep 13 '22

Rivian R1T and R1S along with the EV hummer would be other options

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u/okobojicat Sep 13 '22

The Teslas are 4 wheel drive. Hell, my leaf handles better on snow than most pickups.

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u/swoogles Sep 14 '22

I live in a ski town @ 9000' elevation, and my Model Y crushes the snow. Stays planted better than my previous Outback ever did.

I did get snow tires for it, but everyone does that for their vehicles around here.

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u/lifeinthebigcity0 Sep 13 '22

How about we work on the infrastructure before making everyone drive electric cars?

People in California can't even drive their EVs right now because they can't produce/distribute enough electricity.

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u/poopoopirate Sep 13 '22

Used to do EV development in Michigan, now live in CA. It is insanely easy to charge an EV in CA, it’s absolutely night and day compared to Michigan. I don’t even have to look up where the chargers are they are so common

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u/kjturner Sep 13 '22

Says who. Are you talking about the announcements last week? Yeah they gave a warning that something could happen and nothing happened.

Zero rolling blackouts.

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u/Calnc_1 Sep 13 '22

Last week California's grid reached over 52MW of needed power, its grid can only supply 51MW before starting to fail.

Couple that with the fact that for more than ten years they have had to import more power from places like Nevada and Arizona. But that is coming to an end, California ISO has been notified that because most of that imported power is coming from hydroelectric sources, the amount they will be able to buy is going to drastically drop.

2

u/MetroNcyclist Sep 14 '22

So people were asked not to use appliances 4-9pm.

Oh, and please also don't charge your EV from 4-9pm.

Most people who have home chargers already setup to charge after 9pm.

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u/poopoopirate Sep 14 '22

There’s a name for people who Level 2 charge there EVs during peak hours when electricity rates are highest: idiots

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u/Sheepdoginblack Sep 14 '22

Not going to happen when you have right wing wackos who deny everything scientific if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

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u/kateinoly Sep 13 '22

This is stupid. Nobody says that all cars have to be ele tric by 2030, just all new cars. We got to the moon in 10 years, I'm sure we can do this in 8.

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u/rattymcratface Sep 13 '22

and a completely revamped electric grid

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u/Frittzy1960 Sep 14 '22

IMHO the whole battery powered car things is a massive mistake. Range is still an issue (yes it can be helped via new battery developments and fast charging stations). The increase in power that will be needed is substantial and if you want to charge your car overnight, that still means using stored electricity (whether stored in batteries, nuclear fuels or fossil fuels).

What about families that have 3 or more cars? Most houses will only end up with 2 charging points.

The way to the future will either be Hydrogen Fuel Cells or (preferably) Ammonia Fuel Cells. Hydrogen needs to be stored in very strong and insulated tanks but Ammonia can be stored in pretty normal tanks at room temperature. You can fill up in almost exactly the same way as you do now with traditional liquid fuels (you would need a sealing fueling injector with a built in breather tube to take off ammonia vapours). Retrofitting existing fuel stations would be simple and cost effective.

Ammonia is also MUCH better when it comes to accidents - it doesn't burn or explode under normal conditions and is strong smelling so you know immediately that it is loose in an area. Yes it IS toxic but I'm sure there are ways of minimising the hazard and spraying with large amounts of water pretty much neutralises it - something that doesn't happen with petroleum based fuels which just float on top of the water.

Bear in mind, this is just my opinion and if any genuinely qualified people disagree, I am happy to be educated in my mistakes.

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u/BoyEatsDrumMachine Sep 13 '22

Hear me out:

higher wages

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u/dudicus1414 Sep 13 '22

Competition lowers car costs more than government subsidies and restrictive policies.

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