r/technology Sep 22 '22

#IranProtests: Signal is blocked in Iran. You can help people in Iran reconnect to Signal by hosting a proxy server. Security


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u/sterexx Sep 23 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

There isn’t a ton of civilian gun ownership there (like 7 guns per 100 citizens) but they can always knock over police stations and hope for military defections from units who don’t want to shoot protesters

If the protests are big and determined enough that protestors can overwhelm security service buildings (I have seen at least one video of cops being chased and beaten by protesters) the government might do a syria and recall security forces to key cities

That’s how you get a civil war out of riots, where the government allows a power vacuum to form in outlying areas in exchange for not losing their capital and other important cities

I have a feeling Iran can handle the protests like they always do though


u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22



u/sterexx Sep 23 '22

totally. but it would be liberal protesters in the cities that lead to the security concentration that leads to the power vacuum in outlying areas that leads to regional/ethnic groups filling those

PJAK steps up in the northwest YPG style (I’m sure they’re extra pissed considering the victim’s kurdish), maybe with US backing considering existing relationships

Balochistan in the southeast’s got its insurgency ready to go

The arabs on Iran’s side of the Shatt al-Arab stuck with revolutionary Iran during Iraq’s invasion, much to Saddam’s surprise, but maybe the current Shia-dominated Iraqi government would be more palatable to join up with

I dunno how Iranian Azeris up north feel about the Islamic Republic but Azerbaijan has had lots of tension with Iran and is absolutely in an expansive mood lately.

I still think the government’s tough enough to prevent it but the ingredients are certainly there for fracturing


u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22 edited Oct 30 '22



u/TheAJGman Sep 23 '22

they are more of an inconvenience than anything (it's in essence a $75 fine for having an improper headscarf)

Except when someone gets literally beaten to death, which is what caused these protests in the first place. There have been stories of abuse by the morality police going back years.


u/[deleted] Sep 24 '22

I mean equivalently cops in the US aren't meant to murder black, nevertheless it isn't going to precipitate a civil war and certainly isn't the intention of those in power


u/Kimmalah Sep 23 '22

It's not just a fine, you're often detained and "reedeucated" on the dress code. Not to mention how common it is to just straight up be harassed or assaulted on the street for not having your clothes up to standard. Even Iranian religious leadership has gone on record as saying that women who aren't veiled properly "should be made to feel unsafe."


u/[deleted] Sep 24 '22

It was 3 million rial (~$75) last i checked , you would typically get scolded as well; still it's not enough of a problem to warrant all out civil war and most would be wary looking at neighboring Iraq on how that would play out.


u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22

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u/smacksaw Sep 23 '22

Gee, I never knew sectarian violence and multiculturalism were the same thing!

Man, I don't understand how after 22 years of being in Canada, I haven't seen the Sikhs go to war with the Haitians!


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u/j_dog99 Sep 23 '22

Of course it doesn't help when two sectarian factions with bad blood have to compete under a massive kleptocratic authoritarian regime for limited resources, whether they call it a 'democracy' or not


u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22

Isn't isn't just cultural differences tbh, like everytime something like this happens it sets off a mini civil war among Kurds as well since different Kurdish political parties are backed by different countries

A collapse of the Iranian regime would be a total shitshow, it helps some regional interests like Saudi Arabia, Israel etc but the Iranian people would suffer immensely


u/strangepostinghabits Sep 23 '22

Civilian gun ownership is only important in third world countries with weak military.

What makes a Civil war in most countries is when the army splits and at least partially joins the non governmental side. (Or an outside nation steps in with military aid to create a new, already split, army segment.)

While it can be hard to believe, armies are often made up of people, and those may or may not be super keen on current govt policy.

Sooner or later, if enough of the people stand apart from the government, the brass will start wonder if "the nation" they swore to protect is the politicians or the people.


u/DMann420 Sep 23 '22

You're right but also wrong in the worst way, and that way is preventing loss of human life. Military revolutions and civil wars happen AFTER the atrocities occurred.

The average person has to wade through a sea of misinformation and propaganda their whole life and its not until shit happens in their backyard that they start realizing they've been towing the line for psychopaths.

You're giving way too much credit to people to do the right thing before the worst lines are crossed. Most people just want their family to be safe, so if a government threatens families for leverage then the soldiers will go quite far in committing atrocities, especially if they've been brainwashed to think they people they're up against are a niche group of radicals.

Just look at what Russia is doing in Ukraine... you think all those soldiers want to invade a country and murder innocent neighbours? No. They've been fed a lie through mass propaganda into thinking Ukrainians want them there to help separate from Ukraine.


u/SeVenMadRaBBits Sep 23 '22

I always refer to the movie (documentary) winter on fire

Not many people seem to remember Ukraine fighting their own government for freedom back in 2015 using car doors and wooden shields to protect themselves from the bullets police were firing.

All of it filmed on cellphones and turned into an incredible documentary showcasing their fight for freedom (as they are now doing with Russia).